Rashesh Shah, CMD & CEO, Edelweiss Capital believes from an investors point of view, the market has become extremely attractive at the current P/E multiple and one is still fairly bullish on the India growth story and investors are still fairly bullish, he told CNBC-TV18.
"So it will become an investors market, but maybe a couple of weeks need to go, things need to stabilize, people need to clean their broker accounts, margin funding and MTMs and a week or two down the line, things will stabilize and investors will be back," he said.
Excerpts from CNBC-TV18's exclusive interview with Rashesh Shah:
Q: What do you read into what’s happened on the derivative side and do you expect to see a lot more unwinding happening?
A: I think it’s a horrible day and we have seen corrections of 8-10% over a month happening a lot faster and we had a day in October, when the market fell very sharply. But the market was a bit overextended and there are three things still weighing on the markets. First is the global cues, the second day was the large number of IPOs planned and at the end of the day the IPOs also do take up cash from the investors hand and there is some kind of supply demand mismatch.
So the IPOs, the global cues and this quarter results have been a bit subdued as compared to what the investors were expecting. So all these put together most investors have become extremely averse to risk. We operate in a risk aversion environment at the moment.
Q: What’s your sense of what’s going on in the futures markets right now? Do you expect to see much more pain due to unwinding of stock futures, because that book was very large and we did not see any material skimming off of the stock futures position in the last many weeks?
A: I think automatically they will get squared off and quite a few stop losses would have got hit, even the MTM (Mark To Market) requirement for the day. Because at the end of the day, everyday investors have to pay MTM on the futures position especially when they go down. So I think the MTM should see unwinding in that and OI will come down and we will go to a more subdued market. As you were earlier saying, markets don’t take this kind of shock and immediately recover. I think what we will see is higher amount of volatility and as a result of that, people don’t want those swings, so some kind of scaling down will happen. Maybe few people will switch over to options and will play the market more through options rather than through the futures.
Q: Typically after a day like this, does the pain get carried to the next day in terms of margin calls, mark to market etc.? Does it end with the day or does it get carried over to the next day or two?
A: Usually it should end with the day. This is also on the back of global selling, so most people will say that we will wait and watch rather than currently stay out there. Though I think from an investors point of view, the market has become extremely attractive at the current P/E multiple and one is still fairly bullish on the India growth story and investors are still fairly bullish. But with this kind of volatility, MTM and the global cues, maybe people will just want to stay away and allow things to stabilize for a couple of weeks and then decide on what their investment strategy is going to be.
Q: What you have been hearing about institutional action, because we have been getting reports of most brokerages working with a buy-sell ratio well in favour of the sells?
A: I think people have been conservative because the market was a bit over extended, but obviously I don’t know if anybody expected such a sharp correction. Everybody thought that the market will consolidate for a quarter at which the earnings will be there and markets will become attractive again. I think the global cues have been one of the key catalysts on this, because the Asian markets has been down from the month of January. Then the US recession also has been becoming more and more uncertain everyday and that is making everybody very cautious in these hours of risk.
Q: It’s the sixth day of relentless selling; from where we stand in the short-term do you think we are closer to the bottom?
A: Hard to pick bottoms, I think historically one will know that the bottom has been hit maybe a week after it has been hit, so it really hard to be predicted. I don’t think anybody expected this to be a sharp fall today, but it will take a few more institutions coming tomorrow and saying okay I want to get light on India and so very hard to pick bottoms. One should not try to pick bottoms, if one is trading and if one is an investor, then one should be 5-10% away from the bottom and one should not worry too much. So it will become an investors market, but maybe a couple of weeks need to go away, things need to stabilize, people need to clean their broker accounts, margin funding and MTMs and a week to two down the line, things will stabilize and investors will be back
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