Sectors to eye right now Capitalise on this crash

India is the worst performing market today and Japan's Nikkei declined 3.865% or 535.35 points, Hong Kong's Hang Seng tumbled 4.425% or 1115.12 points Singapore's Straits Times slipped 3.23 and South Korea's Seoul Composite fell 2.95%.

It is proving to be an extremely scary session for the markets as fall has continued further. There is panic selling in markets and nearing to hit a down circuit which comes in at 10% down. Now the Sensex and Nifty are down nearly 7%. Margin call is seen building up.

It has broken all technical and psychological levels. Both Sensex and Nifty has fallen 16% from their highs. Breadth has worsened and the advance decline ratio is over 1:50. According to analyst the scenario is similar to the May 2006 fall. There is pressure due to triggering of margin call. Nifty Futures is trading at 100 points discount.

Shashank Khade, VP - Portfolio Management Services, Kotak Securities feels that the value that is right now emerging is clearly in technology, in auto and in FMCG. Valuations are really cheap right now in these three sectors, he feels.

He said, "My sense is that the markets may tend to go ahead and rotate the sectors itself. The underperformance that you had seen in the last six to eight months may actually start looking good, because not only did they not participate on the way up, they have also participated on the way down, which clearly means that the valuations of these stocks have got much more interesting. Sectors, in this sort of space would include FMCG, auto, technology, which may actually become extremely cheap in terms of valuations. So, while the infrastructure stocks may continue their consolidation and correction, it could be that monies may actually get rotated into the other stocks, which haven’t participated at all."

He adds that, "The value that is right now emerging is clearly in technology, in auto and in FMCG. It is a call as to how much of the negatives in these sectors per se have been factored into these prices. That is the biggest call here. In FMCG and auto, the growth has not been as strong and that is the reason why these stocks have been really down and under. But valuations are really cheap right now in these three sectors."

Vibhav Kapoor of IL&FS said, “We like banking a lot. There is definitely value in banking, capital goods; infrastructure has been beaten down. But there is good value in some of those sectors. In fact we are basically avoiding cement, technology sector and global commodities, which are metals. Apart from these three sectors, we think there is a lot of value in many other sectors.

21st Jan 2008 stock News









21st Jan 2008 stock News















Titan Q3 net up at Rs 30.84 cr

Titan has declared its third quarter results. Its Q3FY08 net sales stood at Rs 813.45 crore versus Rs 542.21 crore.

Its Q3 net profit was at Rs 30.84 crore versus Rs 27.54 crore.

Neyveli Q3 net profit at Rs 204.48 cr

Neyveli Lignite in Q3 FY08 reported net profit of Rs 204.48 crore versus Rs 152.66 crore on YoY basis. During the same period, the net sales were up at Rs 674.56 crore versus Rs 510.24 crore.

Result (Rs cr) Dec-07 Sep-07 Jun-07 Mar-06 Dec-06
Net Sales / Interest Earned / Operating Income 675 728 778 350 510
Other Income 142 154 148 217 133
Total Income 816 882 926 567 643
Expenditure -419 -469 -392 -294 -321
Operating Profit 397 413 534 273 322
Interest -1 -1 -2 -6 -12
Profit Before Depreciation and Tax 396 412 532 267 310
Depreciation -102 -100 -115 -130 -104
Profit before Tax 294 312 417 138 206
Tax -89 -81 -136 -111 -53
Net Profit 204 231 281 26 153
Equity Capital 1678 1678 1678 1678 1678

At current P/E multiple mkt extremely attractive: Edelweiss

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Rashesh Shah, CMD & CEO, Edelweiss Capital believes from an investors point of view, the market has become extremely attractive at the current P/E multiple and one is still fairly bullish on the India growth story and investors are still fairly bullish, he told CNBC-TV18.

"So it will become an investors market, but maybe a couple of weeks need to go, things need to stabilize, people need to clean their broker accounts, margin funding and MTMs and a week or two down the line, things will stabilize and investors will be back," he said.

Excerpts from CNBC-TV18's exclusive interview with Rashesh Shah:

Q: What do you read into what’s happened on the derivative side and do you expect to see a lot more unwinding happening?

A: I think it’s a horrible day and we have seen corrections of 8-10% over a month happening a lot faster and we had a day in October, when the market fell very sharply. But the market was a bit overextended and there are three things still weighing on the markets. First is the global cues, the second day was the large number of IPOs planned and at the end of the day the IPOs also do take up cash from the investors hand and there is some kind of supply demand mismatch.

So the IPOs, the global cues and this quarter results have been a bit subdued as compared to what the investors were expecting. So all these put together most investors have become extremely averse to risk. We operate in a risk aversion environment at the moment.

Q: What’s your sense of what’s going on in the futures markets right now? Do you expect to see much more pain due to unwinding of stock futures, because that book was very large and we did not see any material skimming off of the stock futures position in the last many weeks?

A: I think automatically they will get squared off and quite a few stop losses would have got hit, even the MTM (Mark To Market) requirement for the day. Because at the end of the day, everyday investors have to pay MTM on the futures position especially when they go down. So I think the MTM should see unwinding in that and OI will come down and we will go to a more subdued market. As you were earlier saying, markets don’t take this kind of shock and immediately recover. I think what we will see is higher amount of volatility and as a result of that, people don’t want those swings, so some kind of scaling down will happen. Maybe few people will switch over to options and will play the market more through options rather than through the futures.

Q: Typically after a day like this, does the pain get carried to the next day in terms of margin calls, mark to market etc.? Does it end with the day or does it get carried over to the next day or two?

A: Usually it should end with the day. This is also on the back of global selling, so most people will say that we will wait and watch rather than currently stay out there. Though I think from an investors point of view, the market has become extremely attractive at the current P/E multiple and one is still fairly bullish on the India growth story and investors are still fairly bullish. But with this kind of volatility, MTM and the global cues, maybe people will just want to stay away and allow things to stabilize for a couple of weeks and then decide on what their investment strategy is going to be.

Q: What you have been hearing about institutional action, because we have been getting reports of most brokerages working with a buy-sell ratio well in favour of the sells?

A: I think people have been conservative because the market was a bit over extended, but obviously I don’t know if anybody expected such a sharp correction. Everybody thought that the market will consolidate for a quarter at which the earnings will be there and markets will become attractive again. I think the global cues have been one of the key catalysts on this, because the Asian markets has been down from the month of January. Then the US recession also has been becoming more and more uncertain everyday and that is making everybody very cautious in these hours of risk.

Q: It’s the sixth day of relentless selling; from where we stand in the short-term do you think we are closer to the bottom?

A: Hard to pick bottoms, I think historically one will know that the bottom has been hit maybe a week after it has been hit, so it really hard to be predicted. I don’t think anybody expected this to be a sharp fall today, but it will take a few more institutions coming tomorrow and saying okay I want to get light on India and so very hard to pick bottoms. One should not try to pick bottoms, if one is trading and if one is an investor, then one should be 5-10% away from the bottom and one should not worry too much. So it will become an investors market, but maybe a couple of weeks need to go away, things need to stabilize, people need to clean their broker accounts, margin funding and MTMs and a week to two down the line, things will stabilize and investors will be back

Edelweiss Capital 40% income was from fee & commission: Edelweiss

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Edelweiss Capital has posted a net profit of Rs 92.43 crore for quarter ended December 2007 as against Rs 30.92 crore in same quarter last year. Net sales went up by 228% at Rs 323.21 crore versus Rs 98.5 crore.

In an exclusive interview with CNBC-TV18, Rashesh Shah, CMD & CEO, Edelweiss Capital said that a third of their revenues came from arbitrage, 18% from interest and 40% from fee and commission. He added that their I-banking business has grown by about 80% YoY while institutional equities have grown over 120% YoY. Shah said that they have closed about 24 transactions in the last nine months.

Excerpts of CNBC-TV18’s exclusive interview with Rashesh Shah:

Q: Could you tell us what the numbers for Edelweiss look like in this quarter and how much of your topline is come from pure arbitrage income?

A: For this quarter, we have total revenues of Rs 324 crore out of which about Rs 125 is from fee and commission brokerage and other income. About Rs 95 crore is from arbitrage, which is about 1/3rd.

About 30% of our revenues historically has been arbitrage and treasury business. Another 35-40% has been fee and commission income and the balance 20% has been from things like asset management and interest income.

Our interest income has been scaling up a lot. We have a subsidiary ECL Finance- our NBFC, and we have been scaling up operations in that fairly significantly. So that has contributed to almost 18% of the revenues in this quarter. So 18% has come from interest income, 31% from arbitrage and treasury business and about 40% odd from fee and commission income. So it is a fairly well spread out kind of an activities, from which income has come.

Q: What are the contribution to profitability of the three lines of business and how much profitability pass through has happened from the arbitrage side?

A: Our arbitrage business on the whole, because arbitrage is fairly transaction and cost intensive also, we are more than 150-160 people operating in what we call the treasury group and all. Our fee and commission businesses have operated at about 55% gross margin, arbitrages at about 50% and our interest business - the financing business - operates at about 40-45% margin business. So on an average, we end up at a 46-47% pre-tax margin business, which is spread across this three businesses. But our fee and commission is the one that, obviously because it’s commission agency business, has the highest margins.

Q: What exactly has the performance of the institutional and I-banking segment been this time and what kind of margins have you had for that pocket?

A: Both the businesses have grown overall by about 100% over the same quarter last year. Our fee and commission income last year Q3 was about Rs 48 crore which is now Rs 125 crore. So fee and commission combined has grown by more than 130%.

Our institutional equities business has grown by 120% a year. Our investment banking is up about 80% on the same quarter of the previous year. For the 9-month, three quarters of the last year, we have closed about 24 transactions spread across ECM, IPOs as well as advisory businesses, M&A altogether. So we have done 24 for the year, which is not bad from an investment banking point of view.

Edelweiss Capital Q3 net profit up at Rs 92.43 cr

Edelweiss Capital has come out with third quarter numbers. It has posted net profit of Rs 92.43 crore for the quarter ended December 2007 as against Rs 30.92 crore in same quarter of last year.

Net sales went up by 228% at Rs 323.21 crore versus Rs 98.5 crore. Operating profit jumped at Rs 145.1 crore from Rs 49.81 crore and operating profit margin was down at 44.89% versus 50.57%.

Other points

  • I-banking biz grown by 80% YoY, institutional equities grown 120% YoY
  • The Investment Banking business has successfully closed 24 transactions in 9 months
  • 1/3 rd revenues from arbitrage, 18% from interest, 40% from fee and commission
  • The total average daily volumes for Edelweiss Securities have grown from Rs 1,800 crore in FY07 to Rs 4,500 crore for the current year.
  • The Group’s Equities Broking business continues to show a robust growth both in the Institutional and HNI client segments.
  • The Research coverage has expanded to include 215 stocks across 19 sectors accounting for 61% of the total market capitalization.

Result (Rs cr) Dec-07
Net Sales / Interest Earned / Operating Income 46
Other Income 0
Total Income 46
Expenditure -14
Interest -26
Profit Before Depreciation and Tax 7
Depreciation 0
Profit before Tax 6
Tax -2
Net Profit 4
Equity Capital 37

Bharat Forge Q3 net profit at Rs 58.18 cr

Bharat Forge has announced its third quarter numbers. It has posted standalone net profit of Rs 58.18 crore for the quarter ended December 2007 as against Rs 62.97 crore in same period of last year and net sales of Rs 556.73 crore versus Rs 477.12 crore.

Bharat Forge is to announce its Q3 FY08 result. According to CNBC-TV18 estimates, the company's standalone Q3FY08 net profit is seen up 10% at Rs Rs 69 cr vs Rs 63 cr, YoY. During the same period, its net sales is seen up 24% at Rs 590 cr vs Rs 477 cr.

Factor s to watch

Standalone Sales growth will be divided as 16.4% domestic sales and 35% in exports

Co has been working at derisking exports model with more focus on Europe

Margins in subsidiaries to be arnd 8% , pressure to continue

Chinese operation to breakeven by year end, may be included in cons numbers

Wider range of products being manufactured, completion in ramp-up of

capacities, and scaling up of European operations would help accelerate sales growth.

To hedge against loss due to rupee appreciation and to improve its margins, BFL plans to link its input costs to the dollar, increase raw material imports, raise productivity, increase prices, and focus more on non-dollar based revenues.

Co plans capex of Rs3.5b for its non-automotive business ventures..Pune Baramati plants to add to production capacity in FY09.

Non - automotive business to grow @17-19% in FY08

Result (Rs cr) Dec-07 Sep-07 Jun-07 Mar-06 Dec-06
Net Sales / Interest Earned / Operating Income 557 563 497 516 477
Other Income 16 25 53 22 16
Total Income 572 588 550 538 493
Expenditure -420 -425 -396 -392 -353
Operating Profit 152 164 155 147 140
Interest -29 -27 -23 -23 -22
Profit Before Depreciation and Tax 123 136 131 123 119
Depreciation -35 -35 -33 -27 -25
Profit before Tax 87 101 98 96 93
Tax -29 -33 -33 -32 -30
Net Profit 58 68 65 64 63
Equity Capital 45 45 45 45 45

ONGC Q3 net profit at Rs 4366.54 cr

ONGC has announced its third quarter results. It has posted standalone net profit of Rs 4,366.54 crore for the quarter ended December 2007 as against Rs 4,668.31 crore and net sales of Rs 15,120.83 crore versus Rs 15,564.52 crore.

According to CNBC-TV18 estimates, it was expected to post net profit of Rs 4801.2 crore and net sales of Rs 14,075.4 crore.

Result (Rs cr) Dec-07 Sep-07 Jun-07 Mar-06 Dec-06
Net Sales / Interest Earned / Operating Income 15121 15414 13688 12397 15565
Other Income 863 1210 839 2179 704
Total Income 15984 16624 14527 14576 16269
Expenditure -7089 -6999 -5765 -7983 -6655
Operating Profit 8895 9625 8761 6593 9614
Interest -11 -30 -5 -6 -8
Profit Before Depreciation and Tax 8883 9595 8756 6587 9606
Depreciation -2212 -1987 -1755 -2864 -2558
Profit before Tax 6672 7608 7002 3723 7049
Tax -2305 -2510 -2391 -1517 -2380
Profit after Tax 4367 5097 4611 2207 4668
Extraordinary Items - - - 475 -
Net Profit - 5097.48 4610.53 2681.64 4668.31
Equity Capital - 2138.87 2138.87 2138.87 2138.87

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