Sensex Advice: Shankar Sharma: Sensex can Touch 12000 before 21000

he markets have faced huge volatility for the last two years, says Shankar Sharma, Vice Chairman and Joint Managing Director, First Global, adding however, the low volatility period will break in two-three months. “Compared to 2009, 2010 will be tougher for the bulls.” However, he expects to see 12,000 on the Sensex before 21,000.

Being bullish on Pharma, including Ranbaxy and Orchid Chemicals, he says, emerging markets could underperform going ahead. He expects rates to harden more in emerging markets than developed markets.

Though Sharma is bullish on auto as well, he believes that the stocks will fall in market correction. Further he says, “The markets are struggling globally despite positive economic data—the gross domestic product numbers have been good around the world.”

Inflation, Sharma says, is a bigger concern than high interest rates. “It could go up to 10% by March.” Here is a verbatim transcript of the exclusive interview with Shankar Sharma on CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video.

Q: What have you have made of this trading extension to 9 am?
A: I was planning to retire by the middle of 2010 but it seems I will have to retire on January 3 now because I am not at all a morning person. I find it hard to get up even at 8 am and to make to office by 9 am or 8:45 am is impossible. So count me out on Corporate Radar [CNBC-TV18’s morning show] from January 4 at 9-10 am – it is not going to happen. I think it is an absolute an absurd move.

What is shocking is that it’s completely undemocratic. The biggest interest groups in the markets are brokers. They are the guys who should be making the decision on whether they want extra business or not. Stock exchanges might have become for-profit in manner of speaking but essentially they are to provide a service. They are not there to really make money. So for them to chase higher volumes somehow it doesn’t sit right, brokers should be making a case for higher volumes. Why are stock exchanges so interested in increasing their volumes? To best of my knowledge, National Stock Exchange is never going to do a listing and the Bombay Stock Exchange’s listing is going to happen sometime in 2020 by the looks of it.

So I don’t understand that the guys who are most interested in increasing volumes, which are brokers, 70% of them have had thumbs down on this proposal and yet the stock exchange is in a manner more reminiscent of Hitler’s Germany decide that, “This is it. Take it or leave it”.

I really pine for the good old days the early 90s or 80s where brokers would have gone on strike. That is really what is required today. Unfortunately, brokers have been emasculated by the emergence of a regulator, which back In the 80s did not exists.

But in democracy dharna or a strike is a legitimate tool and I think this is something that requires the Finance Minister intervention. You cannot timings and call yourself Singapore. It requires a lot more than just increasing hours of trading.

People will have to leave their home at 6 am to make it to work in time at 8 am into office. In most Indian metros I don’t think you have a commuting time of less than an hour-and-half unless one is a fat cat. A lot of the stock exchange people are very well paid. They probably leave two minutes away from their stock exchanges. But 90% of the people involved in the market are nowhere that close. I just don’t see where this is going to go. It makes no sense whatsoever.

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