The market mood is skittish at the moment. The markets have not performed too well despite no bad cues from Asia or the US. The IPO market is a mess. Hopefully, we will see a better recovery today. One should be prepared for edginess, though. There have been two bad days; that needs to be kept at the back of the mind.
Will it be another tough and rough week for us? t will be and, I don’t know whether everything will be salvaged even if we manage to pull out a small recovery rally but because we have seen in the past, a few good Friday’s but that’s not meant much in the context of the next week, so hopefully there will be a bit of a recovery but you never know what to make of this market, yesterday there were no cues all of us came in the morning and thought it could be just a sideways placid day of trade and look what happened in the second half.
The traders will be kept guessing now on when a panic wave might suddenly come in. So even if there is a bit of a recovery, it won’t be a confident one ad best a tentative one and so one must prepare for some more edginess although I don’t know when during the course of the day you will see some edginess, but the bears are getting stronger every passing day.
It is best to be a bit cautious though we have had two bad days, so already there is lot of damage which has been done and that needs to be kept at the back of your mind.
Asian Indices:
Not much by way of Asian market action once again, just one market is open and they are all opening on Monday. Here is nikkei 1% down, so just a little nervous but no overwhelming cues from the Asian markets, there on holidays just as well you would say, the US pulled back a little bit but not convincingly. These past few days the screen has been showing weak ness.
It has and it’s eroding confidence. Every wave of selling, which is coming in, is eroding whatever little confidence was coming back. Last two days, one thought that there was a little bit of construction of confidence in the market. People were genuinely feeling that, okay, worst case, 5,200 Nifty, the market has stabilized in a band its sort of building a base, and we wont go down now after this consolidation, we will go up and suddenly there is a 1,000 point sensex wave down which has come in and probably cleaned out a few people.
It is not that we have broken down to 4,500, we are still above the 5,000 mark but confidence would have hit quite a bit over the last couple of days and traders will now feel that this is not a good market to trade in because they are getting it wrong.
I don’t think trading with technical levels is working in this kind of a market and chances of people loosing money are much higher. So it remains a difficult kind of a market. What happens from here on, we don’t know. As you have been hearing from a lot of people that 5,000-5,050 on the Nifty represents some support, hopefully it will hold out, again there is no overt reason for it to break today after 2 days of such sharp falls, but one never know because we saw what happened yesterday, it was unexpected but it sold off nevertheless and I think the bears are getting quite active once again.
It remains a fairly uncertain market, one that is sapping confidence day after day. Traders are slowly getting spun out of the market and investors are probably getting to the point where they are saying that we will not buy anytime the market goes up because inevitable the market is grinding down to lower levels and giving us better prices, so just a little bit of withdrawal of buying might also happen and people might just play the waiting game looking at the continuous waves of selling in. it may still be in a range of 5,000 to 5,400. We may get away after 2 bad days but I think we still don’t have a clear sense of direction and we remain in an extremely rocky and uncertain scenarios.
I wouldn’t be very complacent about the lack of a downside from here. Of course you shouldn’t get too bearish and go about shorting recklessly at this point because the market’s already fallen quite a bit but equally one shouldn’t take for granted technical levels which will hold without failing and go about taking aggressive long positions or like that. The less you take for granted in this kind of a market environment, the better for you......... Read Full
No comments:
Post a Comment