Asian markets trading weak; Hang Seng down 475 points

Asian markets were trading weak. Hong Kong's Hang Seng plunged 1.98% or 475.15 points at 23,546.53.

Japan's Nikkei dropped 1.49% or 202.52 points at 13,423.93.

Taiwan's Taiwan Weighted was down 0.25% or 19.96 points at 7,845.32.

South Korea's Seoul Composite fell 0.95% or 16.07 points at 1,681.38.

Singapore's Straits Times dropped 0.22% or 6.79 points at 3,038.80.

Wall Street slips: Dow down 175 points

Wall Street slips Dow down 175 points

n the US markets, investors courted stocks for three straight days, but by Valentine's Day, they seem to have lost all love. Stocks fell for the first time this week after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke alluded to the possibility of US nearing a recession, indicating the Fed will likely continue to ease interest rates. Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Paulson continued to forecast slow growth. The Fed Chairman stated that financial companies will likely face further write-downs.

Bernanke's comments had a noticeably negative effect on financial stocks. Financial stocks were also under pressure after Swiss banking giant UBS reported a quarterly loss of more than $ 11 billion. JP Morgan and Bear Stearns were amongst the hardest hit in the sector.

The other major losers include tech major Intel. This is after analysts said Intel may be hurt by slower computer sales. The stock dropped for the first time in six days.

In economic news, the labor department reported that first-time claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected, but the four-week moving average rose to its highest level in more than two year

The Dow plunged 175.26 points, or 1.40%, to 12,376.98. The Standard & Poor's 500 index slipped 18.35 points, or 1.34%, to 1,348.86, and the Nasdaq composite index dropped 41.39 points, or 1.74%, to 2,332.54.

A look at how the Indian ADRs performed:

Name
Infosys
Sify
Rediff.com India
Satyam
Wipro
ICICI Bank
HDFC Bank
MTNL
VSNL
Dr Reddy's Lab
Tata Motors
Patni Computer

Sterlite Ind

Symbol
INFY
SIFY
REDF
SAY
WIT
IBN
HDB
MTE

RDY
TTM
PTI

SLT

Price

41.55
4.75
8.87
25.49
11.78
58.20
116.42
6.37

13.88
18.43
13.46
19.46

Change
-0.54
-0.01
-0.02
-1.22
0.14
0.50
-0.66
-0.02

0.18
-0.15
0.23
0.26

Change%

-1.28%
-0.21%
-0.22%
-4.57%
1.20%
0.87%
-0.56%
-0.31%

1.31%
-0.81%
1.74%
1.35%

Volume
2,901,965
65,647
40,809
1,143,680
750,207
2,263,403
505,681
142,020

228,300
609,125
53,000
751,842

High
42.20
4.82
9.13
26.73
11.93
60.08
121.09
6.64

14.00
18.82
13.84
19.85

Low
41.27
4.69
8.71
25.33
11.56
58.05
115.82
6.34

13.71
18.10
13.01
19.26

Source

Best time to enter your favourite stocks: Dimensions Cons

Ajay Srivastava, Dimensions Consulting thinks that the markets are waiting for one big trigger. The trigger may come in the form of the Budget or through cuts in interest rates, he told CNBC-TV18. He feels that this may be the best time to buy the stocks that one always wanted to.Excerpts from CNBC-TV18’s exclusive interview with Ajay Srivastava:

Q: What is the call on the market - there is no pre-Budget rally in sight yet? Do you think we will perk-up or should we expect a weakish market?
A: Today, definitely we are expecting a weakish market. Logically speaking, the rest of Asia is also low. There is no major trigger in the system. The Indian market is waiting for one big trigger. One is the Budget and the second is the interest rate.
Everybody is getting bugged by the fact that the slowdown is for real; we are seeing a supply side issue and the cost price of interest is up. But the RBI Governor is not moving from his target to keep the interest rates. That is the big trigger for this market. Unless the RBI Governor comes with the interest rate, we are finding it difficult to find pure fiscal triggers for the market.

Q: What are the ramifications now for the market with all the IPO cancellations? Is that done and out of the system, or do you think that is going to weigh down on sentiment for a bit?

A: I don’t think IPO cancellations make any difference at all because IPOs have been cancelled because of greed and to some extent, market conditions. But the valuations they were wanting was to capitalise on pure greed in the market. It didn’t happen; so let’s leave that aside.
On pure fundamentals, the market is ripe for a buy. The question is, when will the big trigger happen, which is interest rates. We believe that in terms of fundamentals, the market is ripe for a buy, maybe 100 points here or there. This is the right time to start entering into stocks you always wanted to.

Market may see volatility on weak Asian cues

It’s all about power today. Will it be a blowout, will it be a fuse? We don’t know but everybody on the Street is going to watch that one thing, Reliance Power today. You saw the bulb, it was glowing really bright and then it blew out. We are not saying that it blew out as in a fuse; it may be a blow out as in a big blowout. But either way that’s the thing that the market will be focused on.

So in a sense this has assumed far more important in the market today. It might have a direct bearing on what the market does today. But it is all about Reliance Power. The biggest IPO in our market heads for listing. There are hopes, there are apprehensions, and there are fears. We’ll see what happens. But be focused on it because it will be quite interesting and maybe a bit volatile as well.

The Asian markets have not performed well. This may weigh on the markets' mind. Most markets are down between 2-3% and have seen weakish opening. The markets may see some volatility depending on what Reliance Power does which will be at least as important as any other cue in the market today.

So, prepare yourselves for a volatile session and of course a lot of volatility on the stock, which is debuting today.

On the market mood:

At lower levels there has been some support on Friday at 5,000-5,050 levels, we bounced from above that and went on to 5,100. But this morning once again we might go back to retest those levels because of the global market weakness. So, it is entirely possible that we see those levels at around 5,050-5,000 for the Nifty, which is why Reliance Power assumes quite a bit of importance as well because if it gets off to a reasonable listing, then the market may take a little bit of support from that. But if it does not do very well post listing, then you could see further pressure sentimentally speaking from the market and you could see the 5,050 kind of level being violated as well.

So today is an important day and it’s a testing day for the market. The bigger problem is with the breadth. In the last couple of days midcaps haven’t done well at all, smallcaps have done even worse. So you are seeing continuous unwinding in the popular names like the RPLs, RNRLs and Ispats of the world. So traders are also little skittish at this point, not quite confident about building momentum stock positions.

So whichever way you look at it, the feeling is not completely bearish because we are at important support levels of around 5,000 for the Nifty. But it is difficult to find a lot of confidence as well given what’s going on globally and the kind of volatile cues that we may get with the listing closer home.

On market technicals:

While the put-call ratio is still at about 0.96 and it could go down further and that is probably telling you it’s somewhere in the midpoint of, from that slightly overbought zone after the pullback to not quite oversold zone. There is reluctance to build positions as you can clearly see in stock futures rather there is unwinding.

The one positive leaf that you can takeout is that the FII selling over the last couple of days seem to have abated a little bit, the figures are not very large. This market is not falling 100-points Nifty a day because of USD 40 million of FII selling.

While there has been no net buying and that’s disappointing, you are not seeing great numbers by way of net selling coming in from FIIs and while it is very disappointing from a market perspective and it is a negative cue that a couple of those IPOs have got pulled out, Emaar and Wockhardt Hospitals, it also paves the way for some money to return to the secondary market because increasingly you are getting the feeling that the large IPO calendar, which one was talking about between January and March may actually not pan out that way because a lot of people will withdraw as a couple of them have withdrawn already. That might leave more money for the secondary market as such around the Budget and not get completely sucked out or squeezed out by the primary market.

So if one wants to see this in positive light, there could be a positive straw in it that there is more money now available global conditions permitting to come into the secondary market and not just get sucked out completely by those monster IPOs which were coming in.

So eventually once the dust settles in the global situation, you might actually see the technicals improved a little bit because the local futures market is quite light. You just need the institutional selling to abate a little bit, which can give fillip to stock prices. But pending global markets stability, which we can’t assume. So, one should not look at technicals quite so negatively after what has happened in the primary market from hereon. Source

Support for Sensex at 17113 and Nifty at 4997

Technical Analyst, Prakash Gaba:

Sensex (17465): The market unfolded as expected and is in sell mode. We may see some up move due to Reliance Power listing but the indicators are in sell mode.

The support for the Sensex is at 17113 and the resistance to the up move at 18050-18240.

We said ‘Technically the trend is still intact up and has not been compromised. Nifty support at 4450 is a very strong support to deal with and we should see higher levels in the days to come. he market has been volatile as expected but the market has still managed to stay above our crucial supports of 17400.

Technically the Up trend is still intact but there seems to be some loss of momentum and some indictors are in sell mode. The market may go up in the next few sessions but I would like to doubt those moves if it goes up until a Strong buy signal emerges.

On the larger canvas there is a possibility of the Sensex testing the recent low of 15332 if the market weakens but I maintain that the Nifty low of 4449 is a line in a stone so far and may not be breached.
The crucial support for the Sensex is at 17400-17113 the resistance to the up move at 8400.
The crucial support for the Nifty is at 4997 and the resistance to the up move at 5380.

Rupee opens at Rs 39.63 per dollar feb 11

The Indian Rupee opened at Rs 39.63- 39.65 per dollar versus Rs 39.63 Friday

The rupee is expected to be weak in early trade on weakness in equity markets. The range for the day is seen between Rs 39.50-39.75 per dollar. Subramaniam Sharma, Greenback

The bond market will see marginal correction due to MSS announcement. The liquidity in the system remains comfortable. The 10-year bond is seen within a 3-4 bps range for the day. Ashish Vaidya, HDFC Bank:

Wait for markets to find a bottom: Sudarshan Sukhani of Technical Trends

Sudarshan Sukhani of Technical Trends said that the 5050 Nifty level will not hold out and that the market may in fact head lower and test 4500 – 5000 levels.

Speaking to CNBC-TV18, he said that given the market environment and the repeated show of strength by the bears, investors must wait for a dip below 5000 on the Nifty. Sukhani advised investors to wait for the market to find a bottom.Excerpts from CNBC-TV18's exclusive interview with Sudarshan Sukhani:
Do you think 5,050 will hold out on the Nifty because it sort of got tested once on Friday?
It was. I don’t think it is going to hold out. The chances are that we will go down and test any level between 4,500 and 5,000. Anything is possible, but given the market environment and the repeated strength shown by the bears, it is safer to wait for a dip below 5,000. We have had all this talk about buying. I must remind you that at this point of time the buy on dip strategy is not to be implemented. Wait patiently for the market to find a bottom. That has not happened yet.

Q: What about traders, what should they do? How should they approach trading in the Nifty, would a short trade work on every upmove or should they not be that adventurous?
A: It is possible. If you can do your money management properly, keep a stop loss, understand that gaps can go against you, a short trade at higher levels is a possibility. It is also possible to go long at a very sharp panic bottom, that’s probably a better trade, but both are possible.

Q: What looks like a good trading opportunity right now, to stick to taking calls with the Nifty or trading some of the midcaps or largecaps right now?
A: Trading some of the midcaps would be much more interesting. There are sectors that are in fact moving up. It is only comparative. For example in fertilisers, there are stocks that are actually inching upward. Then we have textiles. Then we have a lot of these so-called midcap momentum stocks that have been literally beaten down, Ashok Leyland for example. So, if the market shows even the slightest signs of strength, trading in these stocks would be better than going for the Nifty.

Q: What are you hearing from you HNI friends on Reliance Power and how are they approaching it this morning?
A: They are very nervous. Many of those large investors are hoping that they can get out. By that it tells me that it may not pan out the way they want it to be.

Q: What have you been spotting on the charts of stocks like Reliance Energy in any case over the last 7-10 days?
A: What we are seeing is that these stocks are going in on a long bout of consolidation. So based on those charts, Reliance Power doesn’t appear to be very promising in the near future, whether it is NTPC, which is out performing the other power stocks and that’s about it or Reliance Energy, or Tata Power or CESC to some extent. The impression is that they are going to go into a range and spend a lot of months in that range.

Q: Two brokerage stocks, if you track them, Motilal Oswal and Geojit, both down 20% to 12% over last week?
A: Between them, Geojit is probably a stock that could become a buying opportunity at some time assuming you want to go and buy brokerage stocks. At some point, even brokerage stocks will become attractive. That level is going to come soon enough. One more panic decline and real estate and brokerage could at least for the short term becoming interesting opportunities.

Q: If the market does slip below 5000 at some point, as a Nifty trader, what you would do, just wait for it to stabilise or start accumulating sub-5000?
A: No, I wouldn’t buy. This is not the right time. We have to wait for some accumulation signs to come in. That could take days. So as a Nifty trader, the trades would be, if there is a panic open in the morning or during the day, that’s a buying opportunity because if not anything, there will be a bounce in my favour.
Otherwise, similarly a sharp rally is a short-term selling opportunity. But there is no opportunity in just a steady soft open. Source

Understanding Section 80c For Tax saving Tax Benifits

Most of us really do not really plan our tax saving avenues in a manner we think of our other Investments. It’s more of saving the taxes rather than utilizing the same money to generate higher returns.
The end of FY06 is arriving and most of the companies have issued timelines for employees to submit proof of Investment done for tax saving purposes.One nice thing about the last finance bill was the removal of restrictions from upper limits of various investing avenues and freedom was given to invest in the eligible avenues subject to overall limit of Rs 100,000.So, from the avenues given below, a tax payer can choose to invest in any avenue subject to a maximum investment of Rs. 100,000 to get deduction under Sec 80 C.
Avenues for Investment under Sec.80C
1. Contribution to Provident Fund
2. Repayment of Principal amount on Housing Loan
3. Payment of tution fee
4. Investment in PPF
5. Payment of Life Insurance Premium
6. Investment in NSC
7. Investment in Tax saving FD’s
8. Investment in Infrastructure development funds
9. Investment in Equity Linked Saving Schemes

Out of the above, Contribution to Provident fund is something in which most of us are already investing (deducted by employer) monthly. So out of the Rs.100,000, reduce the amount that would be deducted by the employer on account of your portion of contribution to Provident fund.

For those of us, who have school going children, Payment of tution fee is also considered for Sec. 80 C benefit.

For those who have availed of housing loan, the repayment of principal would qualify under the 1 Lac limit.

The question is how to utilize the rest of the limit (after PF, Children’s tution fee and repayment of housing loan, if any)(Right click and open the window in new tab)

Best Tax Savings ELSS
Save Your Tax using Equity-Linked Saving Scheme
www.best-tax-savings-elss

Save Tax On Investing
See Tax saving Investment list
www.save-tax-on-investing

The best Tax Savings option ELSS

Here we come to the best investing avenue for today’s investors. ELSS funds have been in limelight for their superior performance and with equity markets putting a strong and show the going is get to be good in the future too.


Why ELSS(Equity-Linked Saving Scheme) is the best Investment Strategy for Tax savings ?
1. Generates highest returns as compared to other Investing avenues

2. Provides a lock in period of Three years which is the minimum for any tax saving avenue.

3. Dividend option enables liquidity since investor gets tax free dividends during the tenure.

4. ELSS can also be seen as a way to long term investing in equity markets.

5. With India growth story unfolding and fundamentals looking intact, Investment Guru is of the view that equities would continue to outperform other investing avenues for at least next 5-7 years. Investing in ELSS provides dual benefit of capitalizing on superior returns as well as tax saving.

Why risk does ELSS pose to an Investor?
The basic risk with ELSS scheme is that since it has a considerable equity exposure, the returns are linked to market returns and hence there is no guarantee of returns and even capital.

However, I feel that this is more of a precautionary statement and needs to be reviewed in broader sense. If we choose an ELSS schemes which has delivered excellent performance in past years and has a track record of consistent results, the chance of investors loosing out would be negligible.

Choosing the best ELSS fund
Now since we have got an understanding that ELSS is a good option, let’s see how to pick a good ELSS scheme. Let’s put some filters to test the dependability of a good scheme.

1. The scheme should have an excellent track record in terms of returns generated.
2. The return generated should be seen for a 3 years timeframe since the lock in period is three years. Good returns generated on a 3 years plus timeframe would be an added advantage.
3. The returns should be delivered on a consistent basis. Hence ELSS funds with volatile returns would loose out to the one who deliver good performance year on year.
4. The fund should not have seen exodus of talent on a frequent basis. The fund should have strong processes in place to take care of management crisis.

Top 5 Equity-Linked Saving Scheme (ELSS)

  • SBI Magnum Taxgain
  • HDFC Long term Advantage Fund
  • HDFC Tax Saver
  • Birla Equity
  • Franklin India Taxshield
Understanding Section 80c
Learn how to save tax by taking benifit of Section 80c
www.moneybhai-investors


Save Tax On Investing
See Tax saving Investment list
www.save-tax-on-investing

How To save Tax On Investing

Investing in Government Securities
For those who seek absolute protection of their capital, Investing in Postal Saving schemes such as NSC or putting money in PPF (Public provident fund) is an option.

Public Provident Fund
his was a popular savings avenue before ELSS came into the picture. PPF offers interest income in the range of 8% with annual compounding. However, the maximum amount that can be invested in PPF is Rs.70,000 and money cannot be withdrawn before completion of 6th year. Doesn’t look exciting enough ….right ? Yes, I agree with you. However, for those who look at PPF in terms of their retirement corpus and who feel that their current PF deduction is not sufficient, they may consider this option.

National Savings Certificate
Another popular avenue of yesteryears, investing in NSC also offers a return of 8% on half yearly compounding basis. Another feature is that Interest accrued on NSC is also eligible for Sec 80 C benefit. However, with removal of Sec 80 L, NSC has lost favor since the interest income is taxable. The duration of NSC is for 6 years with a option of premature encashment after 3 years. However, that would reduce the net yield from NSC.

Tax saving FD’s
This is a relatively new kid on the block. Tax saver FD’s are issued by banks for a tenure of 5 years and premature withdrawal is not permissible. It generates interest income of 8% with quarterly compounding. The interest income is taxable. If we compare tax saving FD’s to NSC, Tax saving FD’s have an edge on lock in period which is lesser by one year. However NSC have an edge from the fact that Interest accrued is also eligible for 80 C limit.

Life Insurance and Tax savings
As far as life insurance is concerned, endowment plans (money back plans) have been a popular source of investing. However, ULIP’s have taken a center stage now since they offer insurance as well as market related returns in a single product. However, investors should understand the underlying structure of ULIP carefully since these offerings have a substantial charge towards expense in the initial years and is advisable only for investors with a large investing horizon.

Another avenue within insurance domain is Pension plans. Pension plans have got a boost in last finance bill with the overall limit raised from Rs. 10,000 to Rs. 100,000.

Let me disclose one thing here. I am biased towards other investing options as compared to Life Insurance products since I believe that insurance and investments should be taken separately. So while investing don’t think of insurance and while insuring yourself don’t think how much return you would generate from the investment in insurance. As far as insurance needs are concerned I believe in pure risk plans which cover your insuring needs at an affordable premium. However, these are my personal views and each one of you has a right to differ from this.

Infrastructure development Bonds-Losing sheen
With a return in the range of 5-6% this is the last avenue a tax saver would resort to. The dismal returns provided by these bonds have resulted in the investors shying away from these bonds. The return is hardly good enough to fight inflation, leave alone wealth creation.(Right click and open the window in new tab)

Understanding Section 80c
Learn how to save tax by taking benifit of Section 80c
www.moneybhai-investors

Best Tax Savings ELSS
Save Your Tax using Equity-Linked Saving Scheme
www.best-tax-savings-elss

Multi Bagger: UTV Software Recommended Price Rs 888.45

Company Profile:
UTV Software is a Mumbai based media company with a growing presence across segments. Starting with a focus on film production and distribution, UTV has branched out in a big way into Television Content, Broadcasting, Gaming and Animations. It is this growing presence across the value chain in one of the best segments of the media space, that has attracted the likes of Walt Disney to invest into this company and excites a bargain seeking investor.

Film Production and Distribution:
UTV is becoming a very prominent banner in the whole film entertainment value chain with operations in film production , domestic and international distribution, home videos and the recent addition of music labels through UTV Music. During the last quarter it managed these initiates well with movies like Welcome, Taare Zameen Par and Goal raking in good earnings. In the coming few months UTV has another 8 block busters lined

up with renowned film makers. Globally, UTV Motion Pictures distributes its products in 32 countries. UTV has already organized funding of $ 80 million and proposes to deploy capital to the tune of Rs 750 crores in this segment.

Broadcasting:
UTV’s much publicized foray into Broadcasting appears to be on track. Its Youth Entertainment Channel ‘bindass’ is getting higher TRPs as compared to its peers. UTV has lined up a few more channel launches including World Movie Channel, Hindi Movie Channel and Business News Channel and is expecting to announce a partner for this segment.

Interactive Gaming:
Interactive Gaming is one of the fastest growing markets globally and UTV has an early mover advantage in India. It has acquired India Games for Mobile and Online Gaming and UK-based Ignition for the Console Gaming. It is developing platforms for all the top players like SONY, X BOX 360 etc.

Financial Position:
For the 3rd quarter for the Financial Year 2008 (ending December 31, 2007), UTV Software reported a stellar set of numbers with the consolidated revenues growing up by 183% at Rs 123.2 crores and the net profit by a whopping 1055% from Rs 1.9 crores (after excluding an other income component of Rs 268.6 crores) up to Rs 23 crores in the current quarter. This is excellent growth by any standards and we expect this momentum to continue in the next few years. For the year as whole, we expect UTV to end at a net profit of Rs 60 crores on consolidated basis and EPS of close to Rs 25. We expect the sales and profits to double in the next 2 years.

Investment Positives:
  • High growth player across the Media space.
  • Strong track record with proven success.
  • Valuable Partnership with Global Media leaders like Walt Disney.
  • Fairly competitively valued when compared to the growth trajectory.
  • In the recent crash, UTV has shown relative strength and held its own while other mid-caps fell considerably.
Concerns:
  • Inherent risks associated with failures in the movie business.
  • The share price has already gone up considerably last one year, thereby factoring some of the good news into the price.
Valuation and Recommendation:
UTV is an excellent exposure in the Indian Media space with its tentacles across the sector. The Management has proved its mettle and its growth plans are well thought out. We recommend this stock for all types of investors with a target price of Rs. 2000/- by December 31, 2008 Rocmonded By Poweryourtrade.com

FM maintains economic growth may be close to 9 pc this fiscal

Finance Minister P Chidambaram has expressed "some disappointment" at the lower than anticipated economic growth projections by CSO, but exuded confidence that the GDP may finally grow close to 9 pc in the current fiscal.

"There is some disappointment, but I am not too despondent. I am pretty confident that we may achieve economic growth rate of close to nine per cent," Chidambaram told reporters after the Central Statistical Organisation put out advance estimates of economic growth rate of 8.7 percent this fiscal against 9.6 percent in 2006-07.

Attributing the projected moderation in economic growth rate this fiscal to lower estimates of agriculture expansion, Chidambaram said the Ministry of Agriculture did not share figures put out by CSO.

The CSO estimates have projected agriculture to grow at 2.6 percent during the current fiscal.

In the first half of the year, farm and allied sector grew at 3.7 percent.

"I have spoken to the Ministry of Agriculture. It did not share the assessment that the growth rate in agriculture for the whole year would only be 2.6 percent," Chidambaram said.

Meanwhile, according to a press note issued by the Agriculture Ministry on Thursday, foodgrain production in the country is estimated to be at an all time high of 219.32 million tonne during 2007-08.

"It could, therefore, turn out that estimates of 2.6 percent for agriculture for the whole year may be on the lower side," the Finance Minister said.

Besides agriculture, the base of 2006-07 has also increased to 9.6 percent from the original 9.4 percent, he said, adding this may also have an impact on the GDP growth rate for the current fiscal.

Pointing out that CSO, CMIE, NCAER and CRISIL have more or less agreed that services will grow at double digits this fiscal and industry at over 9 percent, the Finance Minister said there is a vast difference in estimates of agriculture.

Against the CSO estimates, CMIE projected the farm sector growth at 3.9 percent, NCAER at 3.8 percent and CRISIL at 3.4 percent.

He said only 0.2 percent more growth is required to push up the economic growth rate to 8.9 percent than what is projected by CSO.

"Let us see how agriculture comes out to be finally. We might still get growth rate close to 9 percent. Like all estimates, these estimates are usually revised upwards, because these are conservative estimates... I take this bit of news with a sense of disappointment... I think final news should be better," he said.

He said the CSO estimates should not affect the target of average nine percent growth rate per annum for the Eleventh Five Year Plan, culminating into 10 percent growth rate in the final year.

GDP growth likely to moderate to 8.7 pc in FY'08

According to the advance estimates of national income released by the govt GDP is likely to moderate to 8.7% in the current fiscal due to slow expansion in industrial output.

The industrial output has been hit by high interest rates and sluggish agriculture.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) had grown at 9.6 per cent in 2006-07, which was the highest in 18 years.

"GDP at factor cost at constant (1999-2000) prices in the year 2007-08 is likely to attain a level of Rs 31,14,452 crore as against Rs 28,64,310 crore in 2006-07," according to the advance estimates of national income released by the government on Thursday.

The GDP grew at 9.1 per cent during the first half of this fiscal. It grew at 9.3 per cent in the first quarter and 8.9 per cent in the next three-month period. The advance estimates showed a further moderation during the rest of the year.

The estimated growth rate is slightly higher than the conservative RBI projection of 8.5 per cent, but less than 9.1 per cent, projected by economic think tank NCAER.

Finance Minister P Chidambaram had earlier exuded confidence that the economy will grow close to 9 per cent during 2007-08.

High interest rates have pushed up cost of producing industrial goods and reduced demand for consumer goods, affecting manufacturing growth.

The manufacturing sector is likely to grow at 9.4 per cent during the fiscal as against 12 per cent last year.

The advance estimates revealed that agri and allied activities will likely expand at 2.6 per cent as against 3.8 per cent in the previous year.

Analysts expressed concern over the slowdown in farm sector despite good monsoons, saying it will affect prices of agricultural produce.

"Agriculture is the only major worry. Slowdown in agriculture growth does not augur well for prices of farm products," CRISIL Principal Economist D K Joshi said.

In the industrial sector, mining and quarrying sector is estimated to grow at 3.4 per cent as compared to 5.7 per cent in the previous financial year.

Construction activities are projected to moderate to 9.6 per cent as against 12 per cent. Electricity, gas and water supply would be the only saving grace in the industrial activities as they are shown to be growing at 7.8 per cent against six per cent.

Joshi said it is a good opportunity for the Finance Minister to cut indirect taxes in the coming Budget on industrial goods as it would spur their production as well as reduce their prices to boost demand.

Taking a cautious approach, the RBI had retained the key interest rates in its quarterly review of the monetary policy last month. Some banks have already reduced interest rates on some categories of loans.

Among the booming services sector, trade, hotels, transport and communication activities are likely to expand by 12.1 per cent from 11.8 per cent last year.

Community, social and personal services are estimated to grow at 7 per cent, against 6.9 per cent.

However, finance, real estate and business services are estimated to grow at 11.7 per cent as against 13.9 per cent.

According to the estimates, an Indian, on an average, is likely to have 11.8 per cent more money at Rs 33,131 this year, against Rs 29,642 in 2006-07. National income is likely to grow at 9.1 per cent (Rs 27,60,325 crore) in 2007-08 as compared to 9.7 per cent (Rs 25,30,495 crore) last fiscal.

FM confident of close to 9 pc growth

Finance Minister P Chidambaram, while reacting to advance GDP estimates of national income released on Thursday, sounded confident that the economy will grow at close to 9 percent rate this fiscal.

"I am reasonably confident that figures may be revised and economy will grow at close to nine per cent," Chidambaram said.

"The Central Statistical Organisation figures are lower than what I had anticipated. We are disappointed but not despondent," he said.

Poor figures are mainly because of projected low rate in the agriculture sector, he said.

Govt extends Rs 200 crore grant to FACT

The government has approved an interim grant of Rs 200 crore to the ailing Fertilizers and Chemicals Travancore Ltd to help it sustain operations till the end of this fiscal.

The one-time interim grant for Fertilizers and Chemicals Travancore Ltd (FACT) was approved by the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA), according to an official release.

"This would help FACT to recover the losses due to inadequate compensation for input costs and fertiliser products." it said.


FACT, the only fertiliser company operating in Kerala, has been facing tough times for many years.

Earlier, the government had said it was planning to revive certain public sector units by restructuring and modernising them and FACT was one of the companies selected for revival.

India needs to protect farm sector in Doha deal: US study

Potential gains for India from the Doha deal could be wiped out if the country binds its agricultural tariffs at levels that cannot cushion the global price hikes, a new study by a US think-tank has said.

"Even a 25 percent decrease in the price of rice has negative effects on all major components of the Indian economy, including private consumption, investment, exports, and imports," the study by Carnegie Endowment for International Peace has said.

As much as 78 percent of households would experience real income losses from such a price change and the distributional impact would be regressive, with the poorest households losing the most," it said.

Based on simulations of changes from the Doha pact, the report said that for instance a 50 percent decrease in the world price of rice could have a negative impact on India's real income as large as the positive impact of the entire Doha agreement.

These results suggest the Indian government's concern over the potential negative effects of a Doha agreement on poverty and rural development is well founded, says the study 'India's Trade Policy Choices'.

"... it has been correct to seek provisions such as a special product designation for agricultural products that are important to livelihoods and a special safeguard mechanism to allow it to shield domestic producers from sharp negative price shocks to key commodities," the report said.

The report has been prepared by the Trade, Equity, and Development Program of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

However, the gains of Doha deal would be greater than that from free trade agreements with any of its major trading partners, including the EU, the United States, and China, it noted.

The study even though trade liberalisation, especially through multilateral agreements, could contribute to the country's future growth, the gains are likely to be modest.

"Trade agreements must be negotiated with great care if they are to contribute to the country's development and broadly improve the living standards of its people."

On the other hand, a multilateral agreement at the WTO is expected to have a much larger impact on the Indian economy than bilateral trade agreements with the EU, the United States or China.

"Overall, India's real income would increase by about six times as much under a Doha agreement compared with the gain from the most beneficial bilateral agreement. Still, the gain would amount to only about 1.2 billion dollars, or one-quarter of one percent of the current economy," it said.

According to the economic simulations, exports would increase by about 4 percent, while imports would grow by about 3 percent.

Further, domestic production would rise by about 4.5 billion dollars , or one-half of one percent.

Focusing on employment in the country, the report said that all the trade pacts simulated in this study would induce small increases in demand for unskilled labour, with a Doha agreement increasing demand by 0.9 percent (about 4 million jobs based on current employment levels).

"An India-EU FTA would increase demand by 0.5 percent (about 2.3 million jobs), an India-US FTA by 0.3 percent (1.4 million jobs), and an India-China FTA by 0.2 percent (900,000 jobs)," it added.

India safe, for now, from global financial crisis

India is likely to emerge unscathed from the financial crisis sweeping the globe, thanks to the structure of its economy, exports and financial markets, feels a senior official of the IMF.

"India is increasingly a part of the global economy and so it cannot be de-coupled and it does move in sync with rest of the world... In our view, there are a few things going on in India that will likely insulate it from the worst of the effects that would be felt in other countries," IMF Senior Adviser and Mission Chief for India Kalpana Kochar said in response to a question.

"Domestic demand in India is very strong, where you still have investments that are growing very strongly. Consumption, especially of durables, has come off a little bit as interest rate has increased from last year and are beginning to bite, Kochar said in a teleconference.

Investments, which overtook consumption as the key driver of economic growth in 2003-04, has increased 20 percent from last year's level.

"But we do think that overall domestic demand growth is strong and that is going to keep growth going," she added.

India is plugged into the world trading system but Indian exports have been diversified both in terms of goods and markets... On service exports... we don't have a whole lot of strong evidence but we do believe that impact could go either way”, Kochar noted.

"If in fact US companies are looking to cut costs, it could mean they outsource more. So, India could benefit from that," Kochar maintained.

"Overall in the spectrum of countries that are likely to be affected by this crisis, India is probably a bit further down," she added.

Another senior official of the IMF stressed that the strength of the Indian rupee is pegged to the strong fundamentals and that the Fund is more concerned about the "costs" of intervention by the central banks.

"The strength of the rupee reflects the strength of the Indian economy which is one of the fastest growing economies. It has one of the highest rates of productivity growth in the region, if not worldwide," said Charles Kramer, the Division Chief for the Asia-Pacific.

India has excellent prospects in terms of growth and a very strong corporate sector...which has shown a significant degree of resilience," Kramer added.

"The intervention (by the RBI) is basically to smoothen adjustments in exchange rates... Our concern with the intervention has more to do with the costs," Kramer said.

"When the RBI intervenes or the central banks intervene, generally they accumulate foreign exchange assets and carrying these assets has costs. While the cost is not very high right now, eventually the cost could increase in an environment where the authorities are trying to make progress... on the fiscal side. That could be undesirable," Kramer maintained.

The official said the prospect is bright for India in terms of economic growth -- about 8.75 percent this year and about 8.25 percent for the next fiscal year.

"The main driver of growth now is domestic demand, especially on the investment front. We have seen evidence of things slowing down a bit, but there are a lot of fundamental underlying strengths there -- strengthened corporate profits and certainly a lot of appetite for investment on the corporate sector side," Kramer remarked.

Indian ICT market to reach $24.3 billion by 2011: Gartner

Driven by increased use of technology by small and mid-sized businesses, the country's information and communication technology market is estimated to grow 20.3 pc annually to reach USD24.3 bn by 2011, industry research firm Gartner said.

"The growth will be driven by chief information officers (CIOs) continuing to build and consolidate the basic IT infrastructure, in addition to small and mid-size businesses increasingly leveraging technology to drive business growth and efficiency," it said. The total Indian ICT market was 9.6 billion dollar in 2006, including hardware and software.


Though worldwide IT budgets are expected to increase by 3.3 percent in 2008, slightly higher than 2007, the Indian firms would report stronger-than-average IT budget increases of around 13 percent.


"This increased spending by Indian CIOs is directed primarily towards building new business capabilities, with 30 percent of IT spend allocated for business growth and 19 percent towards business transformation," the firm said.

The Indian technology landscape was evolving rapidly, driven by continued growth in the offshore services sector with strong domestic growth.

Indian firms are spending their budgets more on hardware and software than on people, Gartner said, adding this is significant as Indian firms continue to build out their infrastructure.

The HR component of the IT budget would grow as the emphasis shifts from implementing standard (generic) solutions to creating unique products and services, it added.

Nath favours lifting the cap on SEZ size

Less than a year after the empowered Group of Ministers had imposed a land ceiling of 5,000 hectare on Special Economic Zones, Commerce and Industry Minister Kamal Nath has strongly favoured lifting the cap stating many states want large sized SEZs.

"We are looking at it (the 5000 hectare land ceiling). There are some states who want large SEZs. One cannot have a port SEZ in Madhya Pradesh. Likewise one cannot have a similar policy in Kerala as you have in Madhya Pradesh. There cannot be a 'one-size-fits-all' policy in the nature of the our states," Nath said.

The empowered Group of Ministers, headed by External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee, had imposed a 5000 hectare ceiling on SEZs last year following widespread protests over land acquisition.

The meeting of the eGoM, scheduled for February 4 to review the land ceiling was cancelled.

Lifting of the land ceiling would help big developers like Reliance Industries, DLF, Omaxe and Ascendas which had planned mega multi-product SEZs.

The Commerce Ministry had earlier submitted a proposal before the EGoM favouring relaxation of rules on land size arguing that concerns over displacement have been addressed in the legislation-backed resettlement and rehabilitation policy.

Asked why protests over land acquisition continued despite the Centre coming out with the R&R policy, Nath put the ball in the court of the states.

"States must ensure what they are doing is acceptable to the people. There is no issue in so many states on SEZ at all," Nath said adding the land issue was not restricted to the SEZs but concerned all the industries.

For instance, the Tata project in Singur in West Bengal was not an SEZ but faced protests.

"The Tatas' Nano project in Singur is not an SEZ....the same political party (CPI-M) in Kerala is putting up an SEZ. There is the same party in West Bengal. What are they doing?" he said.

Ruling out any changes in the SEZ policy, Nath said "there is nothing wrong with the policy".

Nath contested the Finance Ministry's contention that there would be big revenue loss on account of the tax-free enclaves.

He said the ICRIER study commissioned by the Finance Ministry pointed to the contrary. "I have the report and it says that there is revenue gain and phenomenal economic activity through the SEZs. It says SEZs have been one of the biggest engines of growth," Nath said.

He said over Rs 50,000 crore worth of investment has been made in the SEZs with direct employment of 150,000 people.

The government has so far given formal approval to 404 SEZs and notified 193 zones.

Caparo to build body structure of Tata Nano

The body structure of the new Rs.one lakh Tata Nano car will be built by NRI industrialist Lord Swraj Paul-owned Caparo Group at a new facility in Singur.

Selected inner structural panels will be pressed and assembled by Caparo at a new facility in Singur, adjacent to the Tata Nano manufacturing plant in West Bengal.


Caparo, the manufacturer of the world's highest performance road-capable hyper car, the Caparo T1, will supply 60 per cent of these assemblies, with the rest being manufactured in-house by Tata.


To meet Tata's ambitious cost targets, Caparo has installed a new semi-automated production line with zero fault forward quality control systems.


"The body technology is relatively conventional, but the manufacturing technology is the result of very sophisticated analysis to ensure high-quality, low-cost production," Caparo Group CEO Angad Paul said on Friday.


"We completed this extremely quickly to meet our customer's deadline, with start of production just six months after the contract was confirmed."


The Tata Nano was launched at the India Auto Expo in

Delhi last month.

Tata chose Caparo for this substantial contract because of the firm's success with a similar contract to supply the Suzuki Maruti 800.

"We have been delivering to plants in India at zero ppm for three years," said Caparo India country head Sunil Pahilajani.

"Quality at this level is a tremendous complement to our people," he said.

Caparo also supplies Indian plants for Ashok Leyland, Eicher Motors, JCB, John Deere and Hero Honda, as well as most manufacturers of two and three-wheeled vehicles.

The Tata Nano is a four-door, five-seat car that will cost Rs one lakh (1,300 pounds) when it enters showrooms in India later this year.

The low cost, around half that of the next cheapest vehicle, gives the Nano the potential to bring motoring to a mass market in a country of 1.1 billion people.

Stock market falls on projection of lower GDP growth

The Bombay Stock Exchange benchmark Sensex fell 127 points to 17,399.55 in late Friday morning trade as funds sold shares on concerns of projected moderation in economic growth.

The 30-share index has lost more than 1,100 points in the last two trading sessions.

The Sensex opened firm at 17.610.07 as against Thursday's close of 17,526.93, and touched a high of 17,688.73 following positive advices from Wall Street.

However, it turned negative to quote at 17,399.55 at 10.45 am, a fall of 127.38 points.

The broad-based S&P CNX Nifty of the National Stock Exchange also declined by 37.80 points to 5,095.45 at 10.45 am from overnight close of 5,133.25.

Projection of a moderation in GDP growth from 9.6 per cent last fiscal to 8.7 per cent this year compelled operators and retail investors to book profits even at the current lower levels, brokers said.

Foreign institutional investors continued their selling spree and sold shares to the tune of Rs 860.35 in cash segment on Thursday, while pulling out Rs 266.56 crore from derivatives.

Contrary to the market trend, IT shares attracted good buying support and showed marked gains.

US Senate approves economic stimulus plan

The US Senate overwhelmingly approved its own version of a giant economic stimulus plan sought by the White House amid mounting fears that the economy could be falling into a recession.

Senate lawmakers voted 81-16 to approve the stimulus, essentially clearing a last hurdle for the measure which requires US President George W Bush's signature to be enacted.

Lawmakers said they want to get the bill, valued at around USD 150 billion, to Bush for signing as soon as possible, clearing the way for tax rebates to be mailed to tens of millions of Americans.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson welcomed the Senate's approval, saying it would help inject money into the stressed US economy quickly.

Paulson's rapid welcoming of the Senate vote suggests it will also be quickly endorsed by Bush.


The stimulus includes a range of incentives the White House hopes will boost economic momentum amid a two year long housing slump and slowing economic growth.

Doha talks can move away from convergence: India

India has said the WTO negotiations for a global trade deal can move away from convergence if the developed countries do not commit to reduce trade distorting agricultural subsidies.

Reviewing the progress of official level talks at the WTO headquarters in Geneva, Commerce and Industry Minister Kamal Nath said that while the negotiations on Doha were at a critical stage, "unless sagacity and statesmanship is on from the countries which have benefited chiefly from globalisation so far, negotiations can also move sharply away from convergence".

Nath, said key issues on agriculture like cuts in overall trade distorting domestic support, product specific limits in different categories, sensitive products and tariff rate quotas, special safeguard, tariff simplification, tariff capping, tariff escalation, tropical products and preference erosion are yet to be resolved.

"The trade distorting measures resorted to by the developed countries have an impact on global agricultural prices, affecting the livelihoods of millions of farmers in the developing world," he said.

Nath said WTO members need to have a sense of urgency to achieve convergence in the negotiations.

"The negotiations hold promise for conclusion by the end of this year. However, it is the content and not artificial timelines that are important," he said.

Toward this end, comparable progress has to be made not only in agriculture but in Non-Agricultural Market Access (NAMA), services and rules as well.

"Only then could there be a horizontal process involving the highest decision-making body of the WTO, viz a Ministerial meeting," he said.

While considerable progress has been made in negotiations on agriculture after the talks resumed in February 2007, the Doha Round has to deliver on a significant reduction in agriculture subsidies given by the developed countries.

"Firm commitments in this regard are yet to come from these countries. Therefore, while the progress made in the past one year has been appreciable, considerable work still remains to be done," he said.

A revised text on agriculture is likely to be out in the next few days and Nath hoped that it would reflect the actual progress made and convergence achieved.

Similarly, the revised text on NAMA, scheduled to come out soon, should also not bely hopes of the developing countries, including India.

In order for the Doha Round to reach a successful conclusion, it is imperative that views of the members are reflected in any document that is brought out.

It should help in taking the negotiations forward rather than acting as a divisive and precipitating factor among countries.

Nath said issues like trade facilitation, amendment to TRIPS and fisheries subsidies also needed to be resolved.

"In order to move the negotiating process forward, a revised text on fisheries subsidies that addresses livelihood concerns of millions of small fisher folk was essential," he said.

Reliance Life forays into health insurance

Reliance Life became the country's second life insurer after LIC to offer a health policy, while seeking a distinctive edge by clubbing wealth accumulation along with medical coverage in its new product.

Barely days after market leader Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) introducing its "Health Plus" plan, Anil Ambani group's Reliance Life launched its "Wealth Plus Health" policy on Thursday.

Announcing the new product, Reliance Life Insurance CEO P Nandgopal told reporters: "The scheme is the first wealth creation product that also offers comprehensive health coverage as a key differentiator in the domestic insurance market."

The unit-linked plan also offers complete investment flexibility to grow wealth by investing in different plans and funds (both equity and debt market), Nandgopal said, adding that it also provides financial support for managing health expenses along with life coverage.

Earlier this month, LIC had announced its health insurance foray with a long-term unit-linked product, which offers a joint health insurance cover to the entire family (husband, wife and children), hospital cash benefit and major surgical benefit along with a unit-linked component designed to meet domiciliary treatment expenses.

Reliance Life CEO said that with an annual premium as low as Rs 10,000 to Rs 12,000 per annum, the insured can get health and saving benefits and meet unexpected medical bills, he added.

Available in ready-made and tailor-made options, the plan provides lump sum benefit to take care of hospitalisation expenses, which include daily hospitalisation costs, intensive care unit expenses and post-hospitalization spending in the form of recuperation benefits.

Speaking on premium collection, Nandgopal said the company expects to garner about Rs 2,500 crore first premium income during the current fiscal against Rs 930 crore collected last year.

The company already has collected about Rs 1,400 crore in the first nine months, he said.

With the foray into health insurance, the company expects the new product to contribute 35-40 percent of the total sales of the January-March quarter, 2008.

"We expect a significant business growth on the back of this product, as so far, people have not been provided with adequate choice of quality insurance products," he said.

The new scheme will provide policyholder all the benefits with all features of ULIP for maximum flexibility and liquidity, minimising risk, maximising returns and averaging cost of units.

The plan also contains coverages with a bouquet of riders available for all lives under the policy and has significantly lower charges and free switches for best risk appetite fund.

"This is the only plan that provides such additional value with a maturity benefit at the end of the policy term" he added.

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