Lehman Bros files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy

Is India safe- What will be the effect on india
Lehman Brothers has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy after Barclays and Bank of America abandoned talks to buy the company.

Lehman said that no broker-dealer subsidiaries will be included in bankruptcy filing. It added that it is exploring sale of its broker-dealer operations. It further said that it is in advanced talks with potential buyers for investment management division.

Lehman added that the customers of the company may continue to trade/take action with respect to their accounts.

Buy RIL between Rs 1750-1780

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Technical Analyst, E Mathew is suggest for buying Reliance Industries between Rs 1750-1780.

Mathew told CNBC-TV18, "The fact that Reliance closed below Rs 1,970, it sends shivers down many people’s spines and today also, I am afraid that with way the SGX etc is performing. If it trades below Rs 1,930 you have a very distinct possibility of going down in the first instance to about Rs 1,850, which is not really a very good support and it could even go down to the strong support zone of around Rs 1,780- 1,750. I do feel that huge buying may emerge round about Rs 1,750-1,780 zone. I would certainly advocate thought it is something like catching the falling knife, I would certainly advocate buying into it between Rs 1,750-1,780 zone."

Disclosure: It is safe to assume that analyst and his clients may have an investment interest in the above sector.

Tech Mah, RIL, Tata Motors, Bombay Burmah : Stock in news on 15 sept 2008

Tech Mah, RIL, Tata Motors, Bombay Burmah, BT, Tata Motors, ONGC, Reliance, Essar Oil, Cairn India, Tata Tele, bse nse,

BT may sell it’s 31% stake in Tech Mahindra to TCS - ET

NELP crude may attract special tax - ET
- PSUs like ONGC and Oil India would have to pay 100% of additional realization beyond $ 75 cut off
- Private Cos like Reliance, Essar Oil and Cairn India would be required to pay 40% of windfall gains

Exclusive: Tata Motors
- Calls for all suppliers meet on October 16 in Mumbai: Sources
- Has called for suppliers conferenec at National level for first time: Sources

Tata Motors likely to use Pune plant to produce engines for Nano

SEBI says new IPO payment system implemented successfully in 20 Microns IPO

Sasken buyback opens today

TPG India Investments to acquire up to 49% stake for up to $ 120 million in Shriram Retail Holdings; will trigger open offer for Shriram City Union Finance ((Shriram Retail Holdings is holding co of Shriram City Union Finance))

Tata Motors: still in No-delivery period: out on September 16

JM Financial comes out of No-delivery period today

Ex-dividend: Nitco Tiles (Rs 2), Parsvnath (Rs 3)

IFCI still on a lookout for strategic investor but seeks clarity on optionally convertible debentures held by Government Of India - FE

Tata Motors sees 31.25% drop in HCV production - FE

Airline traffic falls by 30% in August

Rs 5000 crore relief package for airlines on card - ET ((Airport charges to go down by half; Excise Duty on ATF likely to go))

GSPC cuts IPO size from Rs 5000 crore to Rs 3500 crore after Gujarat Government’s move to garner 30% of PBT for social causes - BS

Government unlikely to allow Reliance to export LNG from RPL refinery - ET

Enhanced DEPB rate likely to continue for the next six months - ET

Japanese giant NTT DoCoMo to buy 25% of Tata Tele, deal worth Rs 6700 crore - BS

Referendum on SEZ stumps RIL, farmers opinion sought whether they are ready to part with their land- BS

Overseas arm of Wadia owned Bombay Burmah Trading Corp to raise around Rs 900 crore - ET

Government cuts stamp duty on P-notes, debentures - ET
- Duties on P-notes have been cut by 1/5th
- Move to deepen country’s bond markets

Essar Oil close to raising USD 5 billion from 4 banks to fund Gujarat refinery expansion - BL

European Investment Bank Rothschild scouts for potential buyers for four divisions of Corus; Tata denies asking bank to find buyers for those assets - Mint

Bajaj considers new brand for low cost bikes-Mint

DoT to audit user base prior to 2G spectrum allotment, DoT rejects FinMin plea to raise reserve price-ET

Arvind to inject Rs 600 crore into retail and brand expansion till 2012 - Mint source

Market cues and F&O cues of tdays early fall downfall of bse, nse

BSE, NSE, Bse index, todays stock news, market fall reason, market down issue, market downfall, sensex future, bse future, nse stock advice bse advice stock advice, advice of good stock monday dec 15 2008
Market cues
* Shrugs off hurricane Ike impact on signs that slowing economy will curtail demand
* For first time since April despite Ike shutting down 19% of US oil processing capacity
* FIIs net sell $349.7 million in equity on Sep 11: SEBI
* NSE F&O Open Interest up by Rs 2,182 crore at Rs 85,069 crore

F&O cues:

* Futures Open Interest up by Rs 833 crore and Options Open Interest up by Rs 1,349 crore
* Nifty Futures add 10.5 lakh shares in Open Interest, at 18-pt premium
* Nifty Open Interest PCR at 0.94 Vs 1
* Nifty Puts shed 1 lakh shares in Open Interest
* Nifty Calls add 26 lakh shares in Open Interest
* Nifty 4100 Put adds 2 lakh shares in Open Interest
* Nifty 4300 Call adds 8 lakh shares in Open Interest
* Nifty 4400 Call adds 4 lakh shares in Open Interest
* Nifty 4600 Call adds 4 lakh shares in Open Interest
* Stock Futures add 2 cr shares in Open Interest

Mkts crash in early trade BSE NSE

Realty, Bankex, Power dip 6-8% Nifty slips below 4k

Mkts crash in early trade BSE NSE

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Markets have crashed in early trade and extended losses further for the first day of week as they have clouded with negative global cues. SGX Nifty lost 4%.

At 9.56 am, the Sensex is down 538 points at 13462, and the Nifty down 168 points at 4060.

DLF, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Unitech, NTPC, Infosys, Reliance Infrastructure and Zee Entertainment lost ground.

Sudarshan Sukhani told CNBC-TV18, "We are very close to a breakdown. We are close to support and this is a trading range - one should go ahead, go long and buy. We can hope for the best and since hope is not enough one should also keep a stop loss below 4,200. So the correct trade would be to go long because this is a trading range and we are now very close to support."

The Indian Rupee has touched 46 to a dollar for the first time in two years. It has hit that level on September 29, 2006.

Nymex crude has slipped below $ 100 to a barrel on the NYMEX on Sunday. It is currently hovering around USD 99/bbl. There was no extensive damage to oil rigs and refineries. There are signs that operations would resume soon. US SPR has released 9,39,000 barrels on disruptions fro, Gustav, IKe. US crude oil demand declined by 3.9% and gasoline was down 2.1%.

US financial space has been seeing more credit crisis. Lehman Brothers is likely to file for bankruptcy in US today, said sources.

Sources also said, AIG is seeking capital from Kohlber Kravis & JC Flowers. Bank Of America is likely to buy Merrill Lynch for $ 29/sh and deal valued at $43.5 billion.

Realty, Bankex, Power dip 6-8% Nifty slips below 4K SENSEX 13247

BSE, NSE, Bse index, todays stock news, market fall reason, market down issue, market downfall, sensex future, bse future, nse stock advice bse advice stock advice, advice of good stock monday dec 15 2008
Markets have slipped further and are taking cues from weak global markets. Rate sensitives, infrastructure, technology, telecom and oil stock hammered the most. Midcap and small cap stocks have also got crushed in this turmoil.

The Sensex plunged 686 points to 13,314 and the Nifty fell 214 points to 4,015, at 10:26 am. BSE Midcap and Small Cap indices lost 3-4%.

Finally source based news has come true. Lehman Brothers has filed Chapter 11 bankruptcy. It says no broker-dealer subsidiaries to be included in bankruptcy filing and the company is exploring sale of its broker-dealer operations.

Another breaking news is Bank of America (BoA) has bought Merrill Lynch (ML) in $50 billion all stock deal. BoA will give 0.8595 shares for every 1 share of ML.

Kirby Daley says will see lot of action from FED and government to keep the situation under control. He sees investor risk aversion going forwrad and may see outflows from emerging markets including India.

Mkts crash in early trade BSE NSE

Realty, Bankex, Power dip 6-8% Nifty slips below 4k

Sterlite falls down 7% on swap ratio, sluggish zinc demand, restructuring plans

The market remained range bound in afternoon trade with realty and banking stocks leading declines. European shares too opened flat-to-negative tracking weak global cues.

Sterlite Industries slipped more than 7 per cent after parent Vedanta Resources said it will transfer Sterlite's aluminium and energy businesses to Madras Aluminium, as part of the group restructuring. As per the plan announced, Sterlite will focus on zinc and copper, while MALCO on aluminium.

However, investors pushed the Sterlite scrip down 7.3 per cent to Rs 589 midway through Tuesday’s trade. They are nervous that zinc prices, which have crashed nearly 62 per cent from their peak in early January due to sluggish demand conditions in key consuming countries like China, could put pressure on Sterlite's earnings going forward.

Sterlite's shareholders will get seven MALCO shares for every four held as part of the restructuring. The stock is trading at Rs 586.60, still down 5.5 percent. Madras Aluminium shares, which hit a low of Rs 146.50 on the news, had recovered to Rs 172, still down 5.8 per cent. Sterlite stockholders will get seven shares of Madras Aluminium, or Malco as the company is called. Malco investors will get a single Sterlite share for every 51 shares they hold in the Madras company, according to a Bombay Stock Exchange statement.

Meanwhile, Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensex was down 114.75 points or 0.77 per cent at 14,830.22. The index swung between a range of 14,852.20 and 14,714.92.

National Stock Exchange's Nifty shed 0.53 per cent or 24 points to 4437.20 after moving in a range of 4486.80 and 4418.95.

BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices were down 0.47 per cent and 0.17 per cent respectively.
Biggest Sensex losers comprised Sterlite (-5.29%), Tata Motors (-3.96%), Tata Power (-2.14%), BHEL (-2.01%), ICICI Bank (-1.86%) and Mahindra & Mahindra (-1.4%).

Ranbaxy Laboratories (2.69%), Reliance Communications (1.69%), Maruti Suzuki (1.35%), Bharti Airtel (1.12%) and Reliance Infrastructure (1.08%) were the gainers.

Market breadth on BSE showed 1386 declines against 1038 advances.

Buy Adlabs Films: Sudhanshu Pandey of LKP Shares

Technical Analyst, Sudhanshu Pandey of LKP Shares is of the view that one can buy Adlabs Films.

Pandey told CNBC-TV18, "Adlabs is trading around Rs 520 today and it is looking attractive for buying. The nearest support is around Rs 508 and Rs 500. I would place a stoploss below Rs 500 on a daily closing basis and buy the stock at current levels and look for profit booking somewhere in the range of Rs 560 to Rs 570. This target can be achieved in a matter of 3-4 weeks."
Published on Tue, Sep 09 at 15:04 , Updated at Tue, Sep 09 at 15:07 Source : CNBC-TV18

Maruti looks attractive for long term

R Venkat Subramanian of Kotak Securities is of the view that Maruti Suzuki is looking attractive from a longer-term point of view.

Subramanian told CNBC-TV18, "Maruti is definitely attractive from a longer-term point of view and when I say longer-term I am talking about the next cycle for up turn in auto sector, which would be driven by softening up interest rates and somewhat easy norms for credit consumer credit. I think that is sometime away but these stock prices fallen enough, maybe around Rs 600-620 levels it represents reasonable value and one would start accumulating."

He further added, "Tata Motors is in a different set of circumstances. On the one hand they have to deal with the acquisition that they have done which is going to take a long time before-if at all-it shows any profit and on the other hand, they are in the midst of very ambitious launch of a low price car. I think that company and that stock for sometime is going to be definitely not in a reckoning for any kind of buying act even if interest rates were to fall. So Tata Motors is in a secular set of problems of its own whereas I would look at Maruti to buy on dips to play for the next cycle, which that stock is well positioned for as a proxy to consumption in the Indian consumer segment."
Published on Tue, Sep 09 at 11:05 , Updated at Tue, Sep 09 at 11:48 Source : CNBC-TV18

RIL may fall in next few weeks

Published on Tue, Sep 09 at 10:51 , Updated at Tue, Sep 09 at 13:36
Source : CNBC-TV18

Technical Analyst, Sudarshan Sukhani is of the view that Reliance Industries is likely to available at lower prices in the next few weeks.

Sukhani told CNBC-TV18, "Reliance Industries certainly suggesting that there is a slow and steady downward drift in that stock. The charts are telling us that every time it tries to rally it makes a lower high. So the problem is that Reliance is not a stock that we can suggest to short in it. But this not a time to buy that stock; I think its going to be available at lower prices in the next few weeks."

Tata Motors is on one month highest level

Tata Motors is top gainer on the Nifty. At 2:36 pm, the share was quoting at Rs 421.65, up Rs 13.69, or 3.36%. It has touched an intraday high of Rs 424.95 and an intraday low of Rs 411.10.

It was trading with volumes of 821,309 shares. Yesterday the share closed up 3.90% or Rs 15.33 at Rs 407.96.

Share Price Movement During The Last 12 Months
Period	Price	Latest Price	Gain/Loss (Rs.)	% Gain/Loss
3-Days	399.41	421.65	22.24	5.57
5-Days	409.18	421.65	12.47	3.05
7-Days	409.18	421.65	12.47	3.05
15-Days	405.39	421.65	16.26	4.01
1-Month	411.94	421.65	9.71	2.36
3-Month	485.83	421.65	-64.18	-13.21
6-Month	630.76	421.65	-209.11	-33.15
9-Month	716.42	421.65	-294.77	-41.14
1-Year	656.83	421.65	-235.18	-35.81

Currently -46.42% below the 52-week high of 786.95

Currently 20.78% above the 52-week low of 349.12

Mkt may retest Nifty can touch 4,650-4,700 levels: Modern Shares

Mon, Sep 01 at 12:46 , Updated at Mon, Sep 01 at 13:41
The September series hasn’t started off too badly. August was down a bit and Friday was very good; today is not too bad. Now the question arises, can markets break those ranges that are formed on the Nifty and power ahead in the month of September and what are the best sectors to bag?

Anil Manghnani of Modern Shares & Stock Brokers feels that the market ranges are probably getting narrower as the volumes continue to shrink even if one takes the end of the June series. He said, “On any fall if we are held within 4,200 or 14,000, this rally still maintains strength to go back and retest 4,650-4,700 levels and about 15,600 to 15,800 on the Sensex. So the fall can be bought into with money stop loss below 4,200 on the Nifty and 14,000 on the Sensex, with a view that this market although rangebound, thin on volumes and movement, may still go and retest the levels again.”

Neppolian Pillai of Modern Shares & Stock Brokers said that one can start looking at the four-wheeler side - Maruti, Tata Motors and Mahindra & Mahindra have moved but the momentum seems to be within Ashok Leyland. He believes that banking has been the star sector within the bear market rally.

Excerpts from CNBC-TV18’s exclusive interview with Anil Manghnani and Neppolian Pillai:

Q: How is the Nifty looking like? Which side are you trading now for the September series? Manghnani: The ranges are probably getting narrower as the volumes continue to shrink even if one takes the end of the June series. A couple of months back, the market was around 4,313. Two months later, it is pretty much around the same level. So if one removes all the noise or the volatility, the market hasn’t done too much on the Nifty although stocks have moved up and down quite a bit. So, as the volumes continue to shrink, the range will get narrow.
The 50% retracement from 3,790 which was this year’s low, right up to 4,650 comes to around 4,220 and similarly from 12,500 odd-level, we rallied to 15,600 - that 50% is around 14,047. On any fall, if we are held within 4,200 or 14,000, this rally still maintains strength to go back and retest 4,650-4,700 levels and about 15,600 to 15,800 on the Sensex. So the fall can be bought into with money stop loss below 4,200 on the Nifty and 14,000 on the Sensex, with a view that this market although rangebound and thin on volumes and movement, may still go and retest 4,650-15,600 levels again.

Q: You are saying that there is a short at doing that within this series for the market - to break its range at 4,400-4,450 and get all the way to 4,600? Manghnani: It has a chance. I do not think the world markets are all behaving in the same manner, maybe the trend is similar but the percentage gain or loss is not comparable - it is not on a day-to-day basis and that is visible. If you see what is happening worldwide, it is one day up and one day down with Dow struggling to cross the 11,600-11,700 area and keeps falling from there. If this GDP (Gross Domestic Product) number is not a one off and Dow starts breaking above 11,700-11,800 and get some sort of move, it helps Asia as a whole.
I hope that 4,200 will hold and if you are buying within 4,300 to 4,200 sort of Nifty levels, your stoploss is only about a percent and a half. That is fair enough if you are a Nifty trader and with the way stocks are moving up 4-5% and coming back to where you originally purchased them, the Nifty is an easier option right now as stocks are not doing too much.

Q3: Interesting that we talk about autos today and Ashok Leyland is your pick from there, what do you see for it in this series? Pillai: Auto sector as a whole is an underperforming sector. After a long time - maybe after two years, the sectoral chart is trying to breakout. So far we have been saying that one should trade four-wheelers and invest in the two-wheelers and that has come true. Now one can start looking at four-wheeler side, Maruti’s, Tata Motors and Mahindra & Mahindra have moved but the momentum seems to be within Ashok Leyland. If one can pick this stock between Rs 33 and Rs 31, it should go to about Rs 37 to Rs 38 kind of levels. It is the smallest stock and there will be larger trading interest going forward once the momentum picks up further. So that would be our pick, one should keep Rs 30 stoploss to protect one’s positions.

Q: What about banking. How is that looking and what would be your pick there if you had to pick one? Pillai: Banking has been the star sector within the bear market rally. That’s one sector, which rallied about 50% majorly because for the last two months they have been sitting on the major downtrend line. They have maintained the uptrend and have given that kind of move on the upside with all the largecap stocks within the banking sector. There are many small midcaps, which have not moved up. Our pick for this month will be Yes Bank; within a band of Rs 132-121 for a target of about Rs 152-162. We can keep a stop of about Rs 120 and trade that on the long side.

Q: How is oil looking as a sector looking for September and what’s the horse you are backing there? Manghnani: It’s still one of the outperforming sectors given the way some of the other sectors even the largecaps from the January highs have corrected in excess of 50-60%. This is one sector where the heavyweights like ONGC and Reliance Industries are still not down. That’s why the sector although down from January is still outperforming on the downside from the rest whether its banking, realty or capital goods.
I picked a smaller stock; it’s probably just retracement move. The stock fell from about Rs 78 in the most recent rally last month to about Rs 59. The range to buy MRPL is between Rs 62 to Rs 56 purely for a trading retracement bounce back of the recent fall back up to Rs 67-71 levels. One can keep a small stop around Rs 55. It’s a nice trading stock maybe doesn’t do too much on a regular basis but when it does move it will give 7-10% move that one is looking for.

Q: There seems to be some interest in capital goods and infrastructure on Friday, anything that is looking strong from that pack to you? Pillai: With the theory holding up that capital goods and banking would be the leading sectors even the stocks from that sector have rallied well. One stock, which has not done much with the bottom of about Rs 738 is ABB. It is still at about the Rs 880 level. We would like to slightly buy it lower at Rs 860 to about Rs 815. We have a target of about Rs 947 to about Rs 1,040 kind of levels. With the stop of Rs 800 that should do well because other stocks like Larsen & Toubro (L&T) and Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd (BHEL) have really moved by about 30-40%, and this stock has moved about 15-16%. It is going to do a catch up kind of a move with the larger ones and would be our pick for the month.

Q: How about pharmaceuticals? Pillai: Pharma is an interesting sector. When the market topped out in January that is exactly the time pharma broke out. If you take Sun Pharma, Cipla, Ranbaxy everything is holding up much above that January level as of now. So, we have again gone for a midcap with a parent company being Sun Pharma. We like Sun Pharma Advanced Research Center (SPARC). This stock has put in lot of work on the downside between Rs 75 and Rs 90 band. It is trying to break out its Friday’s close, which was Rs 94 and if one can buy between Rs 94 and about Rs 80 with Rs 75 as a stoploss. We should get a target upwards of Rs 108-115. It has consolidated at the lower level and now the momentum should come in and it should give 20% upside from here.

Q: What is a good way to play IT right now for you? Manghnani: If you see from the most recent highs, Infosys has corrected from Rs 2,000 and Satyam has corrected from Rs 450. If you compare from January till today, it is still one of the most outperforming sectors in the market. This sector as a whole can be bought from an investment point of view if you are not invested in trading the sector. The sector has majorly bottomed out in the last six months or so and now you do not see it correcting heavily even on down days in the market.

I have gone for an odd stock where probably people do not follow too much nowadays, Mphasis. Maybe over the last few months or years the volumes have dried up but in the last couple of months or down weeks the volumes are not so heavy but when the stock starts to move up on upper weeks, you are getting more and more volume. Maybe little bit of news based with stake sell is there but the volume has interestingly build up over the last two-three weeks. I am looking at it more as a breakout stock not as a stock that has actually bottomed out. The low was Rs 150 or so and now it is still Rs 240. So it is more of a breakout kind of stock, one should buy between Rs 240 and Rs 220. This stock will really move up now. Its monthly target maybe Rs 267 to Rs 277 but even from an investment point of view probably in the long-term, it could give you an excess of more than Rs 300.

Disclosure:
It is safe to assume that my clients & I may have an investment interest in the stocks/sectors discussed.

6th Pay Commission proposals to result in CRR hikes: PNB

On Friday, some banking stocks rallied pretty hard on expectations that rates might be easing off. However, KC Chakrabarty, CMD, Punjab National Bank, believes that if the Sixth Pay Commission’s recommendations are implemented there may be some more liquidity in the market, which would result in further CRR hikes. He also sees some repo rate hikes but does not see banks increasing interest rates immediately.

Excerpts from CNBC-TV18’s exclusive interview with KC Chakrabarty:

Q: What could we expect from RBI at the next meet, could we see any pullback in the stance that they have had so far?
A: I don’t think anything will happen. It is too early. If the recommendations of the Sixth Pay Commission are implemented, it will result in more liquidity being infused into the market. So, there maybe further CRR hikes to rein in this liquidity, but I don’t think rates are going to be eased off so early.

Q: Do you expect repo rates to go up from here because a lot of market participants feel there could be another 50 bps tightening of the repo rate?
A: It may happen, but this would not result in banks raising their interest rates. Banks have already factored in a repo rate hike. They need not go in for another interest rate hike for at least another 5-6 months. If there is a 25-50 bps repo rate hike, banks may not increase their lending rates immediately, but there may be a hike in deposit rates so as to encourage people to save in this difficult market.

Q: If deposit rates go up some more, do you expect some squeezing of net interest margins if you are not inclined to pass down those rates?
A: A 50 bps increase in CRR or a 25 bps hike in the repo rate will not affect margins by more than 10-15 basis points. We will be able to achieve our targeted net income growth despite the pressure. Banks may not unnecessarily tamper with interest rates at this juncture. However, if the CRR increases by another 100 bps, then we may have to rethink.

Q: There are some reports which suggest that the demand for housing sector has scaled back quite significantly. What kind of credit growth do you think banks can maintain? Will it get closer to the RBI’s target of 20% or will it remain above the 25% mark?
A: Credit growth has to come down. If banks are unable to achieve 20% credit growth, RBI should take Monetary measures to bring it down to that level. Credit growth should stabilize at around 20-21%. It may be little more than 20%, but it cannot be more than 25%.

Q: The bond market has moved quite interestingly. The bond yield went up to 9.5% and now the benchmark yield is down to 8.7%. What is that signalling and where do you think yields are headed?
A: I don’t think 8.7% on bond yields is sustainable with this interest rate structure. When bond yields had gone up to 9.5%, many investors built up their bond portfolio believing it was a good rate for the next 10-15 years. However, credit demand in the pipeline was a bit more and people therefore tried selling out. That is why this has happened.

Bond yields will stabilize around 9%. A correction in bond yields is not possible unless inflation comes down. Source

Sensex can touch 10,000-12,500 ( bottom levels): Shankar Sharma

Shankar Sharma of First Global said that the overall trend in market is still down and the rally from 12,500-15,000 is over and done with. He feels that the sharp oil price correction is likely and India will be a big beneficiary from the same. According to him, India will benefit from fund reallocation in Emerging Markets, or EMs if crude cracks. He feels that the markets may slip to 10,000 levels this year or early next year and may then start moving up gradually over next three years. He sees the Sensex bottom within the 10,000-12,500 range. He believes that the market could double from lows but that may be short-lived.

According to him, valuations of BHEL, L&T is still expensive. He doubts further stellar returns from SBI and feels that the rally is over. RIL may drive the next leg of fall in the market and could test levels substantially below Rs 2,000 per share, he said. He doesn't see much downside for IT from current levels.

Sharma said, "Nothing has really changed. The GDP numbers have come in confirming our fears but this is just a recent set of numbers. We don't know what lies ahead. Overall the trend is down punctuated by the rallies we keep seeing. When I say bull market, I mean taking out the highs and continuing to the path of 25000 and beyond. Markets could reach 18000-19000 - that rally is still to be played out. So, markets can double from lows but that still won't be a bull market. It will coincide with crude having come off, some talk of political certainty because inflation has cooled off. That rally will propel markets close to 20,000 but I doubt if that will be so quick. Crude has to come off substantially at USD 80-85 per barrel. Our case is it will and may take 12 months to get to the USD 50 per barrel levels. Crude may rally 10-20% from its lows. When it hits USD 50 per barrel, you will see India begin to come back on its own." Source