Multi Baggers Recommendation Jubilant Organosys

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PN Vijay, Portfolio Manager Report Dated: August 25, 2008
Jubilant- A Multi-faceted Pharma giant in the making

Jubilant Organosys Limited is an integrated pharmaceutical industry player with a wide range of products and services for global life sciences companies. The Company is one of the largest Contract Research and Manufacturing Services (CRAMS) and Drug Discovery and Development Services (DDDS) organizations in India. Jubilant has a presence in generic pharmaceuticals business in the US and supply dosage forms along with regulatory services to European generic companies.

Jubilant抯 business interests are in three main segments - Pharmaceuticals & Life Science Products, Industrial Products and Performance Polymers. Each segment has independent growth units with clear performance and growth objectives. It is the leading manufacturer - worldwide - in distinct product segments including selective APIs, Pyridine and its derivatives, Solid Polyvinyl Acetate,

Vinyl Pyridine Latex and Organic intermediates such as Ethyl Acetate, Acetic Anhydride and Acetaldehyde. Its product line comprises of a wide range of high value added chemicals for the pharmaceutical, agrochemical, confectionery, human and animal nutrition industries.

CRAMS- The New Growth Area for Pharma Companies:CRAMS pertains to outsourcing services/ products from low-cost providers with world-class standards. Since late 1990s, CRAMS has gained more importance, as MNCs have come under pressure to maintain their profitability. It consists of contract manufacturing and contract research. India has become a major provider of these services due to its low cost labor, high expertise services, infrastructure and the time taken for regulatory clearance is less in India as compared to other countries. Over the last five years, CRAMS industry has been contributing close to eight percent to the total Indian pharmaceutical business. CRAMS require technical skills and a good R&D base.

Jubilant has successfully diversified into CRAMs and along with Divi抯, Dishman and a few others is a key player in the sector.

Financial Position:
In the FY�08 Jubilant witnessed an increase in the Sales by 37.5% to Rs 2489 crore and the EBIDTA grew by an impressive 4.2% to Rs 463.7 crore. Its net profit rose by 82.6% to Rs 309 crore. This is excellent growth by any standards. In the First Quarter FY�09 its sales rose by 35% to Rs 619 crore and the EBITDA also showed an increase of 43% to Rs 191.35 crore. Profit after tax declined by 91% to Rs 12.8 crore due to forex loss of Rs 107.6 crore compared to a gain of Rs 87.9 crore in Q1 of FY08. If this extra ordinary item is not taken into account the net profit was infact sharply higher by 119% to Rs 120.4 crore. In the current quarter the interest and depreciation went up by 63% and 73% respectively.

Product wise, the international revenue was also higher by 74% at Rs. 484.6 crore on account of volume growth in the outsourcing related segments comprising CRAMS and DDDS (Drug Discovery and Development Services). Its CRAMS revenue constitutes of 55% of its total revenue. Pharma and life science products and services (PLSPS) is the main force behind company抯 profitability. It recorded a revenue growth of 72% to Rs 522.7 crore. The revenue from industrial products also increased by 28.4% to Rs 304 crore.

Investment positives:

High Entry Barriers:
CRAMS require high expertise, technical skills and R&D. The approval process for entering into CRAMS business is also long and complex. So established players have a great early mover advantage.

Research and Development:
R&D is the backbone of Jubilant. It includes technical, marketing and economics skills generating new products/processes/services. In 2002, it was one of the first Indian companies to enter drug discovery and development. It has an R&D team of over 1,050 scientists. Jubilant has more than 25 years of chemistry experience and undertakes more than 30 complex chemical reactions with global leadership in certain technologies. Jubilant's subsidiaries, Jubilant Biosys, Jubilant Chemsys and Jubilant Clinsys provide a range of functional as well as integrated services.

Acquisitions:
Jubilant Biosys Ltd and Amgen Inc, the largest US based Biotech company have announced a drug discovery partnership under which Amgen and Jubilant will collaborate to develop a portfolio of novel drugs in new target areas of interest across multiple therapeutic areas. Jubilant successfully completes acquisition of Canada based Draxis Speciality Pharmaceuticals Inc. for US$ 253 million. It had acquired Speciality Molecules Pvt. Ltd., a niche manufacturer of Speciality Intermediates with manufacturing facilities located in Ambarnath (near Mumbai) in India in 2008. Its other acquisitions are Hollister Stier (USA), Clinsys Clinical (USA), Cadista Pharma (USA) and PSI Supply (Belgium).

Going Global:
Jubilant Organosys has a presence across the entire pharmaceuticals value chain with facilities and establishments in the U.S., Europe and China. Jubilant Organosys Ltd became the first company in India to be the registered Organisational Stakeholder of Global Reporting Initiative.

Concerns:
China is emerging as a strong competitor to India in the CRAMS business and India抯 rising wage cost is also a major concern. But then also the prospects for India to continue its momentum are high. One of the major concerns for Jubilant is also the kind of contracts it will get in the future. The company has high debt in its books because of which the interest cost is also very high.

Valuation:
Jubilant Organosys has shown a strong growth in profits during the period. It has reported a quarterly EPS of Rs 8.33 (excluding extraordinary charge), which translates to an EPS of around Rs 33.32 per share for FY09. At CMP of Rs 358.90, it trades at a P/E of around 10.92. The PEG ratio (PE/growth in NP) comes to 0.08. We recommend the stock as an excellent investment with a target price of Rs 590.

Multi Baggers Recommendations: Genus Power Infrastructure Ltd

Report Dated: Aug 11, 2008 India Infoline Picks

Play on huge power investments:Genus Power Infrastructure Ltd (Genus) is a play on significant investments planned in the power sector. Company manufactures electronic meters, power inverters and undertakes turnkey projects. Genus provides closed loop metering solutions that offer operational advantages to energy utilities enabling reduction in T&D losses and thereby enhancing their revenues.

Power sector reform to drive momentum:
Implementation of the APDRP scheme, under which the government needs to implement 100% tamper proof metering, is expected to result into higher demand for meters over the next couple of years. Genus has an order book position of Rs 4.17 billion including turnkey projects. Company has participated in tenders more than worth Rs 48.4 billion, of which, it is the ´L-1´bidder in orders worth Rs 4.5 billion.

Tax exemption and JV with Mobix to accelerate growth:
The company's second manufacturing facility in Uttaranchal (first being in Jaipur), enjoys 16% excise duty exemption for a period of 10 years, and increases the capacity from 1.4 million to 2.4 million pieces. Joint venture with Mobix has provided Genus the platform to enter high demand markets like Latin America, Africa, etc. We expect the JV to contribute 10%-15% to company's revenues going forward. The company is already doing pilot projects in Brazil for the past two years and has got all necessary approvals.

Valuation and Recommendation:
Genus posted a healthy revenue growth of 19.9% yoy in Q1 FY09. The operating margin expanded by 50 bps yoy to 16.9%. PAT stood at Rs 85.4 million vs Rs 69.2 million in Q1 FY08, an increase of 23.4% yoy. The company is expected to witness robust revenue and earnings growth driven by significant investments planned towards the addition of 78GW generation capacity in the 11th Five Year Plan.

Financials:
March (Rs Cr) FY07 FY08 FY09E
Revenues 357 483 713
YoY growth - 35.3 47.5
Operating profit 55 84 118
OPM (%) 15.3 17.4 16.5
PAT 28 52 77
YoY growth (%) - 85.9 48.8
EPS (Rs)* 19.7 36.4 54.5
P/E (x) 15.8 8.6 5.7
Source: Company, India Infoline Research * Change in equity

Multi Baggers Recommendations : Natco Pharma

Wednesday, August 6, 2008 Ashish Chugh, Investment Advisor

Natco Pharma - a Discovery led pharma company with strong R&D capabilities, with potential for significant increase in revenues on account of the company’s entry into retail pharma space in US and its tie-up with Mylan Inc. and with the additional cushion being in the form of land bank valued more than the company’s current market cap, is attractive at the current PE of 6.

Natco Pharma was promoted by Mr V.C. Nannapaneni in the year 1981 as a Private Limited Company to be in the business of Research, Developing, Manufacturing and Marketing of Pharmaceutical Substances and Finished Dosage forms for Indian and International markets. NATCO PHARMA began operations in 1984 in Andhra Pradesh, India. The company which began operations with one manufacturing plant and 20 employees today has four manufacturing facilities and 1500 employees. NATCO also has the credit of being one of the largest contract manufacturers in India.Some of the well-known companies like Ranbaxy, Dr. Reddy's Laboratories, John Wyeth etc. get their products manufactured by NATCO. The company’s bulk drug and Intermediate facility at Mekaguda, in Andhra Pradesh is certified for its environmental management systems (ISO-14001) and is US-FDA approved plant.

Natco Pharma is a leader in the Oncology segment and is ranked No.1 amongst Indian companies in the Oncology segment in terms of revenues from the domestic market. Strong Research Base:

The company has a strong research base and has developed various Oncology and non-Oncology drugs. As a recognition of its strong research capabilities, the company has recently been conferred the National Award -2008 by Technology Development Board, Government of India, Ministry of Science and Technology for indigenous technology developed by the company in life saving anti-cancer drugs.

New drug discovery: The company has developed a new molecule NRC 19 for treatment of Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia (CML) which is cancer of the blood in which too many granulocytes, a type of white blood cell, are produced in the marrow. The company has applied for Phase I of Clinical Trials. Successful clinical trials and commercialization of the Drug will lead to substantial benefits for the company

Acquisition of pharma retail companies in US: The company has been increasing its presence in Pharma Retail in US through the inorganic route. The company has over the past year and a half acquired three Pharma Retail chains in the US – Savemart Drugs, Nicks Drugs and Newark Drugs. These stores are capable of adding Rs.150 crores towards Sales Revenues for the company in a year. The company is scouting for more acquisitions in this space in the US.

Tie-up with Mylan Inc: The company has recently entered into a Tie-Up with the Pittsburgh based Mylan Inc., for worldwide marketing and distribution of Glatiramer Acetate. The drug is sold as Copaxone R - a registered trade mark owned by Teva Pharmaceutical, Israel. Natco has signed a license and supply agreement today with Mylan for its (NATCO's) Glatiramer Acetate pre-filled syringes, a generic version of Teva's Copaxone R, which is used to treat multiple sclerosis. The agreement grants Mylan exclusive distribution rights in the United States and all major markets in Europe, Australia, New Zealand, Japan and Canada, and includes an option to expand into additional territories. Teva’s market cap and profitability is a function of Copaxone, which, with brand sales of nearly $2 billion officially, returns a profitability of 50%-70%.

Land bank near Hyderabad Airport: The company has substantial land bank near the Hyderabad Airport (close to 300 Acres). As per a few press reports of Dec 2007-Jan 2008, the land is valued at around Rs.350 crores. Factoring a possible decline that might have taken place in land values in view of the recent real estate slowdown, the land may be valued at around Rs.250 crores on a conservative estimates - this is more than the current market cap of the company.

Financials:

Qtrly-Latest results(Rs in Cr.)





Particulars Quarter Ended Quarter Ended Quarter Ended Year Ended Year Ended Year Ended

(Jun 08) (Jun 07) (% Var) (Mar 08)(12) (Mar 07) (12) (%Var)
Sales 56.51 53.83 5 227.88 180.22 26.4
Other Income 7.12 4.92 44.7 31.95 33.29 -4
PBIDT 15.79 13 21.5 71.64 49.73 44.1
Interest 3.01 2.22 35.6 8.5 5.69 49.4
PBDT 12.78 10.78 18.6 63.14 44.04 43.4
Depreciation 2.7 2.4 12.5 8.59 7.61 12.9
PBT 10.08 8.38 20.3 54.55 36.43 49.7
Tax 2.4 1.31 83.2 14.5 5.96 143.3
Deferred Tax 0 0 - 0 0 -
PAT 7.68 7.07 8.6 40.05 30.47 31.4

Latest Data As On 04/08/2008
Latest Equity(Subscribed) 28.04
Latest Reserve 197.48
Latest Bookvalue -Unit Curr. 80.43
Latest EPS -Unit Curr. 12.28
Latest Market Price -Unit Curr. 74.15
Latest P/E Ratio 6.04
52 Week High -Unit Curr. 179.4
52 Week High-Date 39448
52 Week Low -Unit Curr. 61.05
52 Week Low-Date 39650
Market Capitalisation 207.92
Stock Exchange BSE
Dividend Yield -% 1.69
(Source: Capitaline)

Conclusion:
Natco Pharma is a leader in Oncology segment and has strong research capabilities. The acquisition of pharma retail chains viz – SaveMart Drugs, Nicks Drugs & Newark Drugs would lead to addition of Rs 150 crores in the revenues. The company infact is scouting for more acquisitions in this space. The company’s recent tie-up with Mylan Inc for worldwide marketing and distribution of Glatiramer Acetate, which is the generic version of Copaxone R owned by Teva Pharmaceuticals, may lead to significant addition to the company’s Topline and Bottomline. This however may be a long drawn process (may take 2-3 years) since regulatory and legal hurdles have to be crossed before the sales of the drug could start – Mylan Inc is expected to spend between $ 20-30 mn for regulatory approvals and clinical studies. Many analysts opine that Israeli major may try to block the launch of the product by dragging both Mylan and Natco to court since Teva is being threatened of its m onopolistic position and may try and block the sales through legal route. The near term growth for the company, however is expected to come from the domestic Oncology segment where the company expects to grow at 20%.

Natco Pharma achieved Sales and PAT of Rs 228 crores and Rs 40 crores respectively for FY 08. This results in an EPS of Rs 12.28. The stock thus trades at a PE of 6. The icing on the cake however is the land bank which the company has near Hyderabad Airport – valued at Rs 250 crores on conservative estimates, is more than the current market cap of the company. Given the company’s current market cap of Rs.208 crores, there is thus a margin of safety or a cushion available incase of any adversity.

The stock available at a PE of 6 with company’s strong R&D capabilities, new Drug Discovery, potential for significant increase in revenues on account of the company’s entry into retail pharma space in US and its tie-up with Mylan Inc. and with the additional cushion being in the form of land bank valued more than the company’s current market cap, merits investment at the current levels.