Multi Bagger: Zicom Electronic Security Recommended Price Rs 145.85

Ashish Chugh, Investment Advisor Report Dated: May 19, 2008

What do British Airways, Siddhi Vinayak Temple, RBI, Star TV, Reliance, Tetrapak, Taj Hotels, Haji Ali Dargah, Mumbai Traffic Police, Prince of Wales Museum, NTPC and BARC have in common – well, they all use Zicom’s Electronic Surveillance.

Zicom has created a niche for itself in the Electronic Security market space with offerings for both the Home and Institutional segment. The company today is the leading electronic security solutions provider in the country, with offices in over 50 cities and towns. The company offers a wide range of products including Access Control Systems, CCTV surveillance, Fire alarm systems, Smart cards, Biometrics, Remote video surveillance, Perimeter protection system, law enforcement products, etc. The company has also integrated all this multiple security applications into one coordinated hardware and software package. The company has got strong software capabilities relating to the security business.

The company has a tie-up with Future Media which allows it to have exclusive retail outlets at over 100 outlets of Future Groups select retail formats including Big Bazaar, Brand Factory, E-Zone, Electronics Bazaar etc. Besides, the company has an ambitious rollout plan of exclusive Zicom Retail stores and has targeted 300 stores by 2009.

Zicom services the diverse and demanding security needs of private and public sectors. Its customers include several large Indian and multinational companies in the field of infotech, telecom, media, banking, finance, industrial, etc. as well as various public sector units.

Past Multi Baggers Recommendations


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Balasore Alloys
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78
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Reliance Infra
330
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Opto Circuits
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Usha Martin
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Genus Power
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Indo Tech Trans
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Hind Zinc
288
1119
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Thermax
255
968
280

Investments/ Joint Ventures:-

The company has made several Investments in subsidiaries:

1) The company has acquired 49% stake in Unisafe Fire Protection Specialists L.L.C, Dubai in UAE. With this acquisition, the company aims to gain a foothold in the infrastructure growth in the Middle East and West Asian markets.

2) The company has set up a subsidiary in Hong Kong for taking up manufacturing activities in China and to promote international sale of Zicom branded products.

3) The company has entered into a Joint Venture with Singapore based CNA Group to offer high end intelligent building management solutions and green buildings. Zicom will hold 51% and CNA Group 49% in the JV company Zicom CNA Automation Ltd.
Financials:-

Financials:-

The latest financials of the company are given as under:-
Particulars Quarter Ended Quarter Ended Quarter Ended YTD / Latest Half YTD / Latest Half YTD / Latest Half Year Ended Year Ended Year Ended



(Dec 07) (Dec 06) (% Var) (Dec 07) (Dec 06) (% Var) (Mar 07) (12) (Mar 06) (12) (%Var)
Sales 42.07 40.64 3.5 115.19 108.92 5.8 154.58 75.09 105.9
Other Income 0.04 0.21 -81 0.28 0.66 -57.6 1.08 0.71 52.1
PBIDT 6.74 4.99 35.1 15.84 14.1 12.3 17.03 10.79 57.8
Interest 0.92 0.46 100 2.9 0.88 229.5 1.11 1.3 -14.6
PBDT 5.82 4.53 28.5 12.94 13.22 -2.1 15.92 9.49 67.8
Depreciation 0.16 0.91 -82.4 1.43 2.42 -40.9 3.57 1.82 96.2
PBT 5.66 3.62 56.4 11.51 10.8 6.6 12.35 7.67 61
Tax 1.79 0.97 84.5 3.86 2.61 47.9 2.52 1.4 80
Deferred Tax 0.14 0.41 -65.9 0.04 1.17 -96.6 1.89 0.75 152
PAT 3.73 2.24 66.5 7.61 7.02 8.4 7.94 5.52 43.8


Latest Data As On 16/05/2008


Latest Equity(Subscribed) 12.7
Latest Reserve 97.74
Latest Bookvalue -Unit Curr. 86.96
Latest EPS -Unit Curr. 7.87
Latest Market Price -Unit Curr. 145.85
Latest P/E Ratio 18.53
52 Week High -Unit Curr. 270.2
52 Week High-Date 39455
52 Week Low -Unit Curr. 111
52 Week Low-Date 39532
Market Capitalisation 185.23
Stock Exchange BSE
Dividend Yield -% 0.96
Source:- Capitaline



Conclusion:

Security is a business which has got an enormous potential in India – be it Commercial Buildings, Offices, Homes, Malls, Supermarkets, City roads, Airports, Railway stations, - Electronic Security surveillance would become essential in the coming times.. Zicom having established itself and created infrastructure and competencies to handle such projects would enjoy EARLY MOVER ADVANTAGE. The company’s business model allows it not just one time Sales Revenues but recurring Service Revenues year on year.

The concept of Electronic Security is still in its infancy as far as India is concerned – the growth of middle class, improving lifestyles, concern for Home Security with rising crime graph coupled with falling hardware prices makes a perfect case for demand explosion in the sector. Of late, we are witnessing the old favourite DING-DONG Bell in our homes getting replaced by Video Door Phones. Moreover, the ongoing real estate boom has put the company in a sweet spot with increased order flow being witnessed. The company has already received contracts from various builders for its home security products like Burglar Alarm, Electronic Gas Leak sensor and Video Door Phones.

The Indian security Market is dominated by companies like Zicom, Honeywell, Tyco, Johnsons Control and Godrej, while the Home and Retail segments are dominated largely by unorganized regional players where the focus is standalone products and not solutions - Zicom probably being the only organized national player. The company is scouting for buys in US and UK which will enable it to have a global footprint in the Electronic Security market.

Our major concern however is low promoter’s holding in the company (17.63% as on March 31, 2008) – this may however act as a double edged sword. On one hand, low promoters holding leaves excessive float in the market, on the other hand, makes the company susceptible to being preyed upon by potential raiders.

Inspite of the concern, we believe that space in which the company operates, THE POTENTIAL IS SIMPLY MINDBOGGLING. Long Term Investors with a 1.5 -2 year perspective can accumulate the stock on at the current price and on declines.

Ashish Chugh is an equity analyst and investment consultant based at New Delhi, INDIA. At the time of writing this article, he, his firm and dependent family members have a position in the stocks mentioned above. The author, his firm or any of his dependent family members may make purchases or sale of the securities mentioned in the report while the report is in circulation. author invites readers to send him email and welcomes comments, feedback & queries at .

Multi Bagger: Shasun Chemicals and DrugRecommended Price Rs 51.75

Ambareesh Baliga , Karvy Stock Broking
Shasun Chemicals : Buy with a Price target of Rs. 100/- in 12-15 months. Shasun Chemicals & Drugs (Shasun) operates in three business areas - Contract Research and Manufacturing Services (Crams), formulations and complex chemical compounds used to manufacture APIs. We have a BUY rating on Shasun on back of greater momentum in revenue and earnings growth for the next two years due to increased benefits on account of restructuring benefits and scaleup in the Contract Research and Manufacturing Services (CRAMS) and Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) segments.

Shasun has added one innovator customer in its India business that brought three early phase projects involving proprietary technology & other innovator client in its UK business with phase II product line. We estimate the innovative CRAMS segment to grow at a CAGR of 13.8% from FY07 to

FY09E to Rs.5.2bn with the scale-up of existing contracts, signing of new contracts and increasing capacity utilization.

Leasing of US-based lab to support CRAMS business: Shasun has leased a lab in the US at Piscataway (near New Jersey) to support CRAMS business involving an investment of USD 3mn. This is to develop APIs for its US customers in the pre-clinical and clinical trial stages in order to further strengthen the company's product portfolio.

The net revenues are expected to grow at a CAGR of 11.9% from Rs.7.72bn in FY07 to Rs.9.67bn in FY09E on back of restructuring benefits that would accrue mainly from CRAMS and API segments.

Past Multi Baggers Recommendations


Stock
Reco Price
Peak after
reco

%Gain






Balasore Alloys
6
78
1203






Reliance Infra
330
3202
870






TRF
240
2100
775






Opto Circuits
119
581
390






Usha Martin
32
154
380






Genus Power
246
1050
328






IDFC
55
235
327






Indo Tech Trans
200
808
304






Hind Zinc
288
1119
289






Thermax
255
968
280

Shasun could be one of those who may be affected by Forex Derivatives exposures and losses reported due to this could be utilized as an opportunity to buy the stock at lower levels.

We have seen a sharp fall from levels of Rs 90+ in January to sub 40/- levels in March. It is now consolidating in the range of Rs. 45 to Rs. 55/-. We have our diluted earnings estimates at Rs.7.41 in FY09E. Currently, the stock is 7x on FY09E. We suggest a BUY with a price target of Rs. 100 based on P/E of 13.5x FY09E (EPS Rs.7.41)

Multi Bagger: GVK Power & InfrastructureRecommended Price Rs 50.60

Multi Bagger: GVK Power & Infrastructure Recommended Price Rs 50.60
S.P.Tulsian, Investment Advisor Report Dated: May 06, 2008

GVK Power & Infrastructure is a holding company having interests in Energy, Road, Airport and SEZ projects. The company is having 37% interest in Mumbai International Airport Ltd. (MIAL) developing Mumbai Airport on build-own-operate basis with an initial concession term of 30 years, which is extendable by another 30 years at the option of MIAL subject to certain terms and conditions. The project is extendable beyond 60 years subject to mutual agreement.

MIAL will pay 38.7% of its revenue generated from Mumbai Airport to Ministry of Civil Aviation. The airport will have Aero-related and Non-Aeronautical revenues. Presently, airports caters to 22.25 million passengers and handles 4.80 lakh tonnes of Cargo annually,

which would rise to 40 million passengers and 1 million Cargo with the upgradation of the infrastructure which would happen by 2012. MIAL plans to build state of the art 3 km and 6 lane expressway from Western Express Highway directory to the airport terminal.

Past Multi Baggers Recommendations


Stock
Reco Price
Peak after
reco

%Gain






Balasore Alloys
6
78
1203






Reliance Infra
330
3202
870






TRF
240
2100
775






Opto Circuits
119
581
390






Usha Martin
32
154
380






Genus Power
246
1050
328






IDFC
55
235
327






Indo Tech Trans
200
808
304






Hind Zinc
288
1119
289






Thermax
255
968
280

Mumbai Airport is presently located on 1,875 acres of land and as per the concession agreement 10% of this can get developed. Presently, 91 acres of land is available vacant for development while 147 acres of land is encroached. Also, of the 102 acres land occupied by Government/AAI colonies, 40 acres would be available to MIAL for development.

MIAL in October 07, entered into an agreement with HDIL for development of 276 acres of land at the Airport including land under Slum Rehabilitation Scheme, in which, FSI has been recently raised to 4. This development would be carried out in four phases to be completed in 48 months and HDIL is said to have identified the land in the vicinity for slum resettlement.

The entire development would be of about 50 million sq. feet of which after giving about 300 sq. ft. each to about 80,000 slum dwellers, an areas of 25 million sq. ft. would be available for sale/leases/rentals.

GVK is having 6 lane, 90 km. Toll based road project at Jaipur – Kisangarh of the Golden Quadrilateral project with concession period of 20 years, starting from April 03 to March 23, including the construction period.

GVK is executing 2,200 MW power projects, of which 437 MW gas based (100% stake) 464 MW gas based (with 51% stake) 700 MW Hydel with 100% stake and 600 MW coal based with captive mines of coal with 100% stake.

GVK is developing 3,000 acres SEZ at Perambalur in Tamil Nadu, through its WoS GVK Infratech Pvt. Ltd., to cater to Textiles/Garments, Leather, Engineering, Pharma, Power, IT/ITeS, Iron & Steel, Fertilisers, Chemicals, Petrochemicals, Floriculture, Horticulture, Electronics, Communications etc.

GVK had recently restructured its business and brought ownership of all the business in itself with 37% stake in Mumbai Airport, 100% stake in Road, 100% stake in SEZ, 100% stake in Coal based power project with coal mining, 100% stake in Hydel Power, 100% stake in 437 MW gas based power project and 51% in 464 MW gas based power project, thus consolidating its infrastructure assets under GVK Power & Infrastructure.

GVK has reported good consolidated results for the year ending 31st March 08, with total income of Rs.532 crores on which PAT was placed at Rs.135.47 crores resulting in an EPS of rupee 1.04 on face value of rupee one.

Present equity of the company is Rs 140.58 crores, with face value of rupee 1, which is held to the extent of 60.94% by the promoters, 30.28% by FIIS and OCBs, 5.89% by banks, mutual funds and 2.89% by the public. One could understand the confidence of the promoters and overseas investors into the company and less than 3% is the effective public float.

Share is presently ruling at Rs 50.60, which translates into a market capitalization of just Rs 7,000 crores for the company while Mumbai Airport land available for development is valued at about Rs 50,000 crores, 37% share of this gets valued at Rs 18,000 crores. Other interests of Airport, Power, Road can be valued at over Rs 20,000 crores.

Share is an excellent bet at Rs 50.60, which has good potential to give an annualized return of 40% over the next 4 – 5 years, with virtually no downward risk.

Zicom Electronic Security Multi Bagger Recommended Recommended Price Rs 145.85

PYT Mailer


Multi Bagger: Zicom Electronic Security
Recommended Price Rs 145.85


Ashish Chugh, Investment Advisor Report Dated: May 19, 2008




What do British Airways, Siddhi Vinayak Temple, RBI, Star TV, Reliance, Tetrapak, Taj Hotels, Haji Ali Dargah, Mumbai Traffic Police, Prince of Wales Museum, NTPC and BARC have in common – well, they all use Zicom’s Electronic Surveillance.

Zicom has created a niche for itself in the Electronic Security market space with offerings for both the Home and Institutional segment. The company today is the leading electronic security solutions provider in the country, with offices in over 50 cities and towns. The company offers a wide range of products including Access Control Systems, CCTV surveillance, Fire alarm systems, Smart cards, Biometrics, Remote video surveillance, Perimeter protection system, law enforcement products, etc. The company has also integrated all this multiple security applications into one coordinated hardware and software package. The company has got strong software capabilities relating to the security business.





Past Multi Baggers Recommendations


Stock
Reco Price
Peak after
reco

%Gain






Balasore Alloys
6
78
1203






Reliance Infra
330
3202
870






TRF
240
2100
775






Opto Circuits
119
581
390






Usha Martin
32
154
380






Genus Power
246
1050
328






IDFC
55
235
327






Indo Tech Trans
200
808
304






Hind Zinc
288
1119
289






Thermax
255
968
280








The company has a tie-up with Future Media which allows it to have exclusive retail outlets at over 100 outlets of Future Groups select retail formats including Big Bazaar, Brand Factory, E-Zone, Electronics Bazaar etc. Besides, the company has an ambitious rollout plan of exclusive Zicom Retail stores and has targeted 300 stores by 2009.

Zicom services the diverse and demanding security needs of private and public sectors. Its customers include several large Indian and multinational companies in the field of infotech, telecom, media, banking, finance, industrial, etc. as well as various public sector units.

Investments/ Joint Ventures:-

The company has made several Investments in subsidiaries:

1) The company has acquired 49% stake in Unisafe Fire Protection Specialists L.L.C, Dubai in UAE. With this acquisition, the company aims to gain a foothold in the infrastructure growth in the Middle East and West Asian markets.

2) The company has set up a subsidiary in Hong Kong for taking up manufacturing activities in China and to promote international sale of Zicom branded products.

3) The company has entered into a Joint Venture with Singapore based CNA Group to offer high end intelligent building management solutions and green buildings. Zicom will hold 51% and CNA Group 49% in the JV company Zicom CNA Automation Ltd.

Financials:-

The latest financials of the company are given as under:-
Particulars Quarter Ended Quarter Ended Quarter Ended YTD / Latest Half YTD / Latest Half YTD / Latest Half Year Ended Year Ended Year Ended
(Dec 07) (Dec 06) (% Var) (Dec 07) (Dec 06) (% Var) (Mar 07) (12) (Mar 06) (12) (%Var)
Sales 42.07 40.64 3.5 115.19 108.92 5.8 154.58 75.09 105.9
Other Income 0.04 0.21 -81 0.28 0.66 -57.6 1.08 0.71 52.1
PBIDT 6.74 4.99 35.1 15.84 14.1 12.3 17.03 10.79 57.8
Interest 0.92 0.46 100 2.9 0.88 229.5 1.11 1.3 -14.6
PBDT 5.82 4.53 28.5 12.94 13.22 -2.1 15.92 9.49 67.8
Depreciation 0.16 0.91 -82.4 1.43 2.42 -40.9 3.57 1.82 96.2
PBT 5.66 3.62 56.4 11.51 10.8 6.6 12.35 7.67 61
Tax 1.79 0.97 84.5 3.86 2.61 47.9 2.52 1.4 80
Deferred Tax 0.14 0.41 -65.9 0.04 1.17 -96.6 1.89 0.75 152
PAT 3.73 2.24 66.5 7.61 7.02 8.4 7.94 5.52 43.8


Latest Data As On 16/05/2008
Latest Equity(Subscribed) 12.7
Latest Reserve 97.74
Latest Bookvalue -Unit Curr. 86.96
Latest EPS -Unit Curr. 7.87
Latest Market Price -Unit Curr. 145.85
Latest P/E Ratio 18.53
52 Week High -Unit Curr. 270.2
52 Week High-Date 39455
52 Week Low -Unit Curr. 111
52 Week Low-Date 39532
Market Capitalisation 185.23
Stock Exchange BSE
Dividend Yield -% 0.96
Source:- Capitaline

Conclusion:

Security is a business which has got an enormous potential in India – be it Commercial Buildings, Offices, Homes, Malls, Supermarkets, City roads, Airports, Railway stations, - Electronic Security surveillance would become essential in the coming times.. Zicom having established itself and created infrastructure and competencies to handle such projects would enjoy EARLY MOVER ADVANTAGE. The company’s business model allows it not just one time Sales Revenues but recurring Service Revenues year on year.

The concept of Electronic Security is still in its infancy as far as India is concerned – the growth of middle class, improving lifestyles, concern for Home Security with rising crime graph coupled with falling hardware prices makes a perfect case for demand explosion in the sector. Of late, we are witnessing the old favourite DING-DONG Bell in our homes getting replaced by Video Door Phones. Moreover, the ongoing real estate boom has put the company in a sweet spot with increased order flow being witnessed. The company has already received contracts from various builders for its home security products like Burglar Alarm, Electronic Gas Leak sensor and Video Door Phones.

The Indian security Market is dominated by companies like Zicom, Honeywell, Tyco, Johnsons Control and Godrej, while the Home and Retail segments are dominated largely by unorganized regional players where the focus is standalone products and not solutions - Zicom probably being the only organized national player. The company is scouting for buys in US and UK which will enable it to have a global footprint in the Electronic Security market.

Our major concern however is low promoter’s holding in the company (17.63% as on March 31, 2008) – this may however act as a double edged sword. On one hand, low promoters holding leaves excessive float in the market, on the other hand, makes the company susceptible to being preyed upon by potential raiders.

Inspite of the concern, we believe that space in which the company operates, THE POTENTIAL IS SIMPLY MINDBOGGLING. Long Term Investors with a 1.5 -2 year perspective can accumulate the stock on at the current price and on declines.


Ashish Chugh is an equity analyst and investment consultant based at New Delhi, INDIA. At the time of writing this article, he, his firm and dependent family members have a position in the stocks mentioned above. The author, his firm or any of his dependent family members may make purchases or sale of the securities mentioned in the report while the report is in circulation. author invites readers to send him email and welcomes comments, feedback & queries at .